Southampton vs. Aston Villa Odds
| Southampton Odds | +100 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +270 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Friday | 4 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Matchday 11 of the Premier League kicks off Friday when Southampton hosts Aston Villa at Saint Mary’s Stadium in a battle of struggling clubs.
The teams are neck and neck in the table, with the hosts in 14th and the Villans in 15th place. Although their places in the league might be similar, the forms of both squads couldn’t be any further apart.
In the last six matches for both teams, Southampton ranks ninth in the EPL over that span with eight points, while Villa is down in 16th with four consecutive losses.
The history of the fixture also favors the South Coast club, with the Saints having only lost one of their last nine league games against the visitors.
Let’s take a look at this game to see where the betting value sits.
Southampton Due for Positive Results
We’re starting to see the positive regression for Southampton and manager Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side will hope that continues in this match.
The Saints have picked up recent wins over Leeds and Watford to go along with a draw against Burnley. In its last four matches, Southampton scored five of its nine goals on the campaign, which aligns with the team’s performance in the advanced metrics.
Southampton ranks in the top half of the EPL in multiple attacking metrics, including expected goals (14.7), big chances created (12) and shots per match (12.6), according to fbref.com.
Hasenhüttl ran into a lot of injury issues at the start of the season to influential players like Che Adams and Stuart Armstrong. As those players start to play more consistently, we should continue to see Southampton rise up the table.
Villa Struggling, Especially Away From Home
After picking up 10 points in the opening six matches, Villa’s form has plummeted in losses to Tottenham, Wolves, Arsenal and West Ham.
Dean Smith’s squad hasn’t even been too competitive over that stretch, posting a -7 goal difference and allowing 12 goals during that span.
The advanced metrics don’t show much positivity for Villa like its opponents, with the visitors in the bottom half of the table in xG allowed (15.9), xG difference (-4.9) and big chances surrendered (14) this season.
To make matters worse, Smith’s team has been one of the worst in the EPL away from home early in the year, losing four of five away from Villa Park to go with a -6 goal difference.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Sportsbooks believes the host will take three points from this match, with Southampton listed around a +105 favorite on the moneyline. The total is set at 2.5, with the under at +100 odds.
Although I think there’s value in both, I’m going to play the favorite.
If you look at the xG difference marks for both sides over the last five matches, Villa failed to win one xG battle en route to posting a -5.5 xG difference, while the Saints bettered their opponents in expected goals in four of five contests for a +1.6 overall.
It also looks like Villa will be without as many as eight first-team players, including leading scorer Danny Ings, winger Bertrand Traore and center back Ezri Konsa.
Like I mentioned above, I think over the total of 2.5 goals is a decent play, as well, but I'll hold off on that with confirmation that Ings will be out against his former club.
Pick: Southampton ML (+105)
