Southampton vs. Brighton Odds
| Southampton Odds | +150 |
| Brighton Odds | +215 |
| Draw | +215 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -145) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Brighton will travel along the English south coast to Southampton for the South Coast Derby on Saturday. The Saints and Seagulls both settled for draws in their midweek Premier League matches, a common theme for the two sides who have combined for 13 draws in 28 total matches this season.
Both clubs have underlying numbers that suggest they should be solidly in the midtable, maybe even looking up at a potential European place given the struggles of the usual clubs above them. Instead, Southampton finds itself sitting 15th and struggling to finish the chances it has created.
Brighton has been in a finishing rut of its own as well, winning none of its last nine games with seven draws and two defeats in that time span.
Brighton and Southampton have unique styles of play uncommon among the league's elite, with Brighton's defensive possession and passing structure battling against Southampton's high-intensity defensive pressure on the other side.
Southampton may be the team more desperate for points and at home on Saturday, but they're a bit overpriced in the market. The value in this match lies in betting that the recent lack of finishing from both clubs is just a blip and that it's lowering the total more than it should be in this game.
Southampton Looking for Instant Offense
The Saints have underperformed expected goals for more than any other team in the league, and you'd expect them to have scored about seven more goals than they actually have this season. Southampton have created 19.3 xG and scored just 13 total goals from those chances.
Southampton began the 2020-21 season red-hot at taking its chances and the team has regressed to the opposite extreme in the last calendar year, but it's getting to the point where you'd expect them to revert positively back up toward the mean that has them as a below average, but not bad PL attack.
The Saints have the third-highest pressing intensity in the league, measured by passes per defensive action. This is a Ralph Hasenhuttl staple, in that they tend to concede big scoring chances when they get broken through but tend to also win the ball high up the pitch as a result of hunting down the ball and aiming to turn that into instant offense.
Brighton will play a style conducive to either boom or bust for Southampton. They may win the ball high up the pitch against the Seagulls, but also could easily get played through and concede clear-cut scoring opportunities.
Goalkeeper Alex McCarthy has also regressed hard in recent weeks at preventing goals from shots on target, and I'd expect that to continue. He's been a consistently below average shot stopper for multiple seasons now.
Brighton Not Generating Enough Chances
The Seagulls of old have returned: Brighton is once again underperforming its expected goals numbers in attack. It's nowhere near as bad as last year for Brighton, but the club has totaled 13 goals from 15.8 expected thus far in 14 league matches.
That's interesting for two reasons: One is the underperformance, but the second is that the chances created are down considerably from last season. Even though the Seagulls aren't creating as much as last year, the return of Tariq Lamptey as a right wingback makes them much more dangerous on the attack.
Lamptey is excellent at crossing, take-ons and provides much needed width. Brighton scored its lone goal against West Ham on a Lamptey cross and Neal Maupay finish, and the attack suffered to create chances when Maupay was out of the lineup as well.
Brighton is as good against teams that press high as anyone in the league, as evidenced by their 2-2 draw with Liverpool and goalless draw with Leeds in which they were the better side in both of those games.
They'll likely make a mistake or two leading to good chances for Saints, but the Seagulls should also be able to break through the Saints' press and take advantage of a Southampton defense prone to allowing clear scoring chances.
Betting Analysis & Pick
While most will see this as a lower-scoring affair given the issues of both attacks to score goals, the positive regression is coming for both attacks and this is a good spot with both Maupay and Lamptey expected to start in attack for the Seagulls.
Southampton has also really struggled to play with leads this season given its style of play, so if the Saints grab an early goal in front of home fans, the Seagulls should be able to get back into this game and score themselves.
The Saints' defense has been below average when leading this season, while the Saints' attack ranks second best in the league per 90 when playing from behind.
My recommendation for this game is to play the cheaper price prop bet on both teams to score based on recent goal-scoring form and back this game to have more chances at goal than perhaps the conventional wisdom around the game will suggest.
The price on Both Teams To Score is deflated because of the low total, but this projects as a relatively even game across the board and with more normal finishing rates from both sides, this would be lined much higher.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-115)
