Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Southampton vs. Tottenham (Sept. 20)

Premier League: Southampton vs. Tottenham Odds

Odds updated Saturday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Both Spurs and Saints will be looking to rebound from a loss in their season opener.

Southampton were resurgent during Project and look poised to challenge for a spot in the top half of the table this season.

Tottenham on the other hand were a disappointment in 2019-20, finishing sixth and barely qualifying for the Europa League. Spurs do have some reinforcements coming to North London, but they'll need to improve drastically if they are going to challenge for a spot in the top four this year.

Southampton

The Saints were fantastic after the restart, grabbing 18 of a possible 27 points and posting a +3.46 expected goal differential. However, they did lose Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, one of their best players, during the offseason to Tottenham.

However, Southampton were able to keep Kyle Walker-Peters on a permanent deal from Tottenham and also signed Mohammed Salisu, a talented young centerback, from Real Valladolid. Those two should improve a defense that allowed 1.49 xG per match in 2019/20.

Southampton's strength lies in their offense. The Saints averaged 1.48 xG per match last season overall and 1.66 per match after the hiatus. Danny Ings had the best season of his career, bagging 22 goals in 38 appearances and averaging 0.50 xG per 90 minutes.

He returns along side Che Adams and Nathan Redmond in attack, so the Saints should be able to maintain their offensive production.

Southampton split with Tottenham last season, winning at home 1-0 and losing on the road 2-1. However, Southampton won the expected goals battle in both of those matches and I expect them to win it for a third time in a row on Sunday.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Tottenham

Tottenham went from playing in the Champions League Final to barely qualifying for the Europa League in only one year. Spurs finished sixth in 2019/20, beating out Wolves based on a tiebreaker, but really deserved a lower finish based on their -5.11 xG differential and 49.26 expected points.

Spurs' underlying metrics were really poor after the hiatus. Tottenham created 1.05 xG per match and posted a -0.07 xG differential during Project Restart.

Tottenham's road form was downright putrid last season, ranking in the bottom half of the Premier League in expected goals for, against, and differential.

It seems Tottenham is getting reinforcements in the form of Gareth Bale and Sergio Ruguilon, but they wont be on the field Sunday.

Additionally, Tottenham played a Europa League qualifier match in Bulgaria on Thursday, so Southampton will have a rest advantage on Sunday.

Projections and Pick

I don't think Tottenham should be favorites in this match and believe this is a great spot for Southampton to earn a result against a road-weary Spurs side. I see value on the Saints and am going to back them on the Draw No Bet line at +128. I would play that number all the way down to -105.

Pick: Southampton Draw no Bet (+128)

[Bet Southampton at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]