Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Spurs vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Sunday, Nov. 1)

Spurs vs. Brighton Odds

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Attacking sides meet in North London on Sunday afternoon for what should be an extremely entertaining matchup between Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton & Hove Albion.

Underlying statistics suggest Spurs and Brighton have been two of the Premier League’s top teams this season, especially going forward.

Jose Mourinho’s men took care of business last week at Burnley before suffering an embarrassing Europa League setback in Antwerp. On the other side, Brighton looks to get back in the win column, having taken just two points from its last four games.

Let’s find the value in this one:

Spurs

On Thursday against Royal Antwerp, Spurs’ depth was tested and it failed miserably. A 1-0 defeat left Mourinho infuriated, believing the players he had given a chance had let him down. Tottenham’s best Starting XI, which is still among the league’s finest, is performing quite well this season. In my opinion, that's likely what we’ll see in its latest league fixture.

Spurs are seventh in the table, but actually fourth according to expected points, mostly due to the fact that conceding a pair of late equalizers have taken four points off its record to start the campaign.

The club's attack has received all of the praise, but its defense actually rates as third best in the league, according to non-penalty expected goal difference at 5.53 through six matches. Purchases of fullbacks Matt Doherty and Sergio Reguillon were necessary, which has meant the departure of Jan Verthongen has not hit the center of its defense that hard.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Going forward, Spurs are obviously led by a two-man show: Son Heung-min and Harry Kane. Son, the South Korean international, has a staggering eight goals through six games this season, although his xG total is a bizarre 3.06. He's benefitted from some poor defensive execution, highlighted by his free run of St. Mary’s Stadium in a four-goal performance earlier this season.

Meanwhile, Kane has five goals and eight assists thus far. His xA total is 3.60, which aligns with Son’s xG total, given that the duo has combined early and often this season.

A troubling trend for Spurs is be the lack of productivity from the rest of its team. Guys not named Son or Kane have combined for three goals and three assists this season.

The 16-goal output is obviously very impressive through six games, so it’s not the biggest deal that goals have yet to come from midfield or another attacker. If the Son-Kane well dries up, though, it could be problematic.

Brighton

The Seagulls have proven to be xG darlings early in this campaign. Brighton ranks fifth in expected points, compared to 16th on the actual table. However, the most surprising stat is that it enters this match with the league’s lowest NPxGA total at 4.48. What makes that so impressive is the fact Brighton has already played Chelsea, Manchester United and league-leader Everton.

In its last two matches, Brighton’s defense has allowed a combined 1.06 xG, which is perfectly reasonable, yet the attack has let it down. In a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, Brighton registered just 1.09 xG, a total it must have been disappointed with after the match.

In their most recent game (a 1-1 draw against West Brom), the Seagulls registered just 0.55 xG and scored via an own goal.

Brighton will be annoyed to have conceded a late equalizer against West Brom. Instead, the Seagulls enter this game four points above the relegation zone, closer to that than they are the middle of the league table.

Striker Neal Maupay leads a pretty deep Brighton attack with four goals this season. The Seagulls will have to create plenty of chances for him if they have a chance of a win this match, while they will also hope Tottenham’s xG numbers bring it back down to earth.

Betting Analysis

While both of these teams have stellar defensive records this season, I am expecting goals in this matchup. Both teams play with an attacking mentality, with the Spurs having world-class quality in its frontline.

Brighton will not be going to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium just to get a point. The Seagulls will be looking for three points to turn their season around and get results going in the right direction.

The current total is 2.5 goals on DraftKings, which seems like a slam dunk. I would definitely play that and also think there is incredible value at over 3.5 goals, which is currently +165.

Since the 2.5 total on the over doesn't present the best odds by itself, I would parlay it with Spurs to take all three points. Given Mourinho's fury over that dreadful Europa League performance, I expect a mature response from an experienced team.

That said, parlay the over with Tottenham's -162 moneyline, which gives you +128 odds.

Pick: Parlay Spurs ML (-162) w/Total Over 2.5 Goals (-152)

[Bet on the Spurs-Brighton match now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]