Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tottenham Hotspur vs. Newcastle United (Sept. 27)

Premier League: Newcastle at Tottenham Odds

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Sunday's early kickoff in the Premier League features a couple of teams that will likely be battling at opposite ends of the table this season. Tottenham will look to fight its way back into the race for the Top 4, while Newcastle was projected to be in the relegation scrap.

Spurs are -225 favorites to beat Newcastle on DraftKings' three-way moneyline.

Tottenham Hotspur

I had Tottenham circled as a team I wanted to bet early in the season. I know that sounds a bit odd since Tottenham went off the rails last year and its underlying metrics supported its struggles, but I thought the overall perception of the club heading into 2020/21 was a bit dramatic.

Last season's performance was worrisome and its expected goals showed it should have finished much lower than sixth, but I was looking at it more as an outlier than anything indicative of what was to come from Spurs, which has finished sixth or better in every season since 2009/10. That run includes a runner-up, two third-place finishes and a silver medal in the Champions League since 2015/16.

Tottenham's less-than-inspiring performance last season certainly played a role in cooling off Spurs' expectations for 20-21, but I also think people like to root against manager Jose Mourinho.

The media has battled with Mourinho for years now and "The Special One" isn't everybody's cuppa tea, but he's got a really talented squad to work with. There aren't many teams with a more dynamic starting XI than Tottenham, so it's possible that fans, pundits and bettors are focusing too much on Mourinho and losing sight of the bigger picture.

Tottenham's detractors were emboldened after a monotonous 1-0 loss to Everton in the season opener, but spirits would be lifted a week later thanks to a 5-2 win over everybody's preseason sleeper Southampton.

The expected goals in that victory ended 2.28 to 2.28, but Spurs were clinical and effective on the counter, which is what Mourinho wants out of his side. Southampton certainly play a more open style compared to Newcastle, so I do wonder if Spurs will find goals hard to come by against the Magpies.

Additionally, you do wonder about Tottenham being a bit fatigued as it played a Europa League qualifier Thursday against Shkendija in North Macedonia.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Newcastle United

Newcastle finished 2019/20 in 12th place on 44 points, but it was very fortunate to end up in a mid-table spot. Not only did Steve Bruce's side finish with a -20 goal differential, but Newcastle also finished with the second-worst xG differential in the Premier League last season.

Those kind of metrics scream regression, but the Magpies upgraded their roster over the brief offseason. I wouldn't say that the additions of Jeff Hendrick, Ryan Fraser, Callum Wilson and Jamal Lewis will keep Newcastle from scrapping at the bottom of the table, but the reinforcements should help the Magpies fight off that regression a bit.

Newcastle has played two very different matches to start to the new season. The Magpies dismantled West Ham, 2-0, in their opening game, but were humbled in a 3-0 loss to Brighton last week. Neither result was a fluke.

The up-and-down start to Newcastle's season could be a theme. There are reasons to believe in the Magpies, especially against poor teams like West Ham, but this is still a flawed club that capable of throwing up plenty of duds.

Newcastle will also be dealing with some injury issues and could be without Jamal Lewis and Allan Saint-Maximin.

Spurs-Newcastle Betting Pick

As I said to start, I've been looking for opportunities to buy low on Spurs. However, I'm not going to force it. There's no way I'm going to lay -225 on a team that is coming off a midweek trip to the Balkans.

That said, I don't think the price on Newcastle is high enough to warrant consideration. The gulf in talent in this matchup is very wide and Steve Bruce could be missing some key contributors, so I'm going to pass on a side in this matchup and instead focus on the total.

Matchweek 2 was the highest-scoring weekend in Premier League history with 44 goals and eight of the 10 matches went over 2.5 goals. Perhaps that's a sign of things to come, but I am expecting this match to play at a less frenetic pace than what we've seen so far this season.

Not only do I have concerns about fatigue and injuries, but I think the gameflow for this matchup points to a low-event contest.

Newcastle is averaging 1.09 expected goals per match through two games and was the second-worst team at creating xG in 2019/20, so it's hard to imagine it will be creating many chances against Spurs.

Additionally, Mourinho prefers his sides to hit back on the counter against teams that come forward. I don't expect Newcastle to be that adventurous or have that much of the ball, so Spurs could have an awkward time creating offense from open play.

A five-goal outburst from Spurs as part of the highest-scoring weekend in league history is creating some value on the Under on Sunday morning. I'd play it at +100 or better.

The Bet: Under 2.5 Goals (+110)

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