Watford vs. Man City Odds
| Watford Odds | +1400 |
| Manchester City Odds | -500 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+110 / -135) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBC | fuboTV | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Two teams on opposite ends of the Premier League table will meet on Saturday when Watford welcomes Man City to Vicarage Road.
The visitors enter the match in second place and have been dominant over their last six matches, winning five and posting a +8 goal differential.
Since Claudio Ranieri took over as manager in October, the Hornets have put together some better performances in his seven games in charge. However, the hosts still find themselves just outside of the relegation zone in 17th.
Watford has never beaten City in the EPL over 12 attempts (drawing two and losing 10), and I’m not sure even the new manager bounce can help them in this one.
Watford Seeing Slow Progress
If you were to just look at the results since Ranieri became manager, there’s not much to get excited about with only six points out of a possible 21, but you have to take a deeper look at the advanced metrics to see the real improvement.
The Hornets averaged 0.871 expected goals per match, 10.286 shots/game and posted a -4.8 xG difference in their first seven league fixtures, according to fbref.com.
Since the change at manager, those numbers have improved to 1.629 xG/match, 12.857 shots per game and a -3.4 expected goals difference.
This improvement comes at a time when Watford has played Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United, Leicester and Chelsea, some of the titans of the PL.
Summer signing Emmanuel Dennis continues to impress for the Hornets, pacing the team with six goals and five assists in the EPL.
Man City Thriving on Elite Defense
Man City has just been quietly going about its business this season and will need to keep pushing if it wants to keep the league title for another year.
There’s not much to frown about when you look at the statistics of the Cityzens, who rank second in non-penalty xG/90 minutes (2.11), shots per match (17.79) and big chances created (28).
Manager Pep Guardiola said in his press conference this week that he thought City midfielder Bernardo Silva was the best player in the league. It’s hard to argue that as Silva leads the team with five goals through 13 matches.
The true dominance has come from a Man City defense that has the best numbers in the league in multiple categories, including expected goals allowed per match (0.67), shots allowed per game (6.57) and big chances surrendered (6).
Betting Analysis & Pick
As you would expect, DraftKings has City as a substantial favorite at -500 on the moneyline to go with a high total of 3.5 goals.
The big question you have to ask yourself is whether you think Watford is going to score or not. I think the Bees are good value to find the back of the net, which is why my best bet is on the single-game parlay of Both Teams to Score and Man City win at +150.
If you look over the last six matches, Watford’s games have had an average of 3.68 combined expected goals and 23 total goals. Meanwhile, the same bet would have cashed in four of six.
As for City, this bet would have also won in four of the last six in all competitions for the Cityzens, including the last three straight.
The dominant defense has also been more vulnerable for the reigning champions away from home, as they've given up a goal in six of 10 total away games.
Ranieri’s Watford has shown that its plan is to be more offensive in order to secure enough points to stay in the EPL, and I think the Bees find a goal in a loss to cash this single game parlay.
Pick: Single Game Parlay: Manchester City to Win & Both Teams To Score (+150)
