West Ham vs. Watford Odds, Picks: Betting Predictions for Friday’s (July 17) Premier League Match

Watford at West Ham Odds

Odds as of Thursday evening and via bet365. Get up to $100 in bet credits at bet365 today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The stakes are quite high for the Premier League's lone match on Friday. West Ham and Watford are tied on points and sit just three points above the relegation zone, and since both teams have a better goal differential than Bournemouth and Aston Villa, the winner of this game will virtually secure their standing in the top flight for next season.

West Ham still have Aston Villa on their schedule, so a loss wouldn't hurt them as bad as Watford, who have Manchester City and Arsenal to finish the season.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

West Ham

It's been a difficult season for the Hammers, who have finished between seventh and 13th in each of the past eight seasons. West Ham's defensive problems have been the root cause of their struggles this season. The Hammers rank 17th in both goals allowed and expected goals allowed per game this season.

West Ham would be in a lot more trouble if it weren't for a serviceable offense that produces 1.32 expected goals per match. That's only good enough for 12th in the Premier League, which may not sound great but, compared to their defense, it is a big boost.

West Ham's offense has been especially impressive of late, generating 2.71 xGF per match over their last four games. Only Manchester City have a better mark over that span.

West Ham's poor defense and average offense has led to a lot of scoring chances in their matches. Matches involving the Hammers average a total of 3.17 xG per match. Slightly more than half (51%) of West Ham games have gone over 2.5 goals this season. That number ticks up to 59% at London Stadium.

Watford

With two wins over Norwich and Newcastle last week, the Hornets have put themselves in a good position to stave off relegation again in 2019-20. They were especially impressive against Newcastle, creating 3.13 expected goals en route to a 2-1 win over the Magpies.

The Hornets have put themselves in a position to stave off relegation by winning twice last week against Norwich and Newcastle. They were especially impressive against Newcastle over the weekend creating 3.17 expected goals in that match.

Watford have been abysmal on the road this season and it hasn't got much better for the Hornets since the break. The Hornets have earned just one point and sport a -4.55 xG differential (9.29 xGA to 4.74 xGF) over their last six away matches.

Overall, Watford are a better team than their performances have shown and, according to Understat's expected points (xPoints), the Hornets should be nearly 10 points higher in the table.

Although Watford have been poor on the road as of late, I think some more positive regression may be coming against West Ham's poor defense on Friday.

Previous Meeting

The Hammers won a four-goal thriller, 3-1, in the reverse fixture at Vicarage Road. The match was riddled with scoring opportunities as the two teams combined for 39 shots and six big scoring chances (35% of scoring or more).

The high amount of shots and big scoring chances led to a combined 6.21 expected goals for the match based on the expected goals report.

Analysis

While I don't see any value in backing either side in this match, I will make a play on the total. I project this match for 2.93 expected goals, so I'll take the Over 2.5 at plus-money.

• West Ham projected odds: +148 (40.28% win probability)
• Watford projected odds: +184 (35.15%)
• Draw projected odds: +307 (24.57%)
• West Ham projected xG: 1.52
• Watford projected xG: 1.41