Wolves at Sheffield United Odds, Picks
| Sheffield United odds | +310 [BET NOW] |
| Wolves odds | +112 [BET NOW] |
| Draw odds | +205 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2 (+102/-122) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Gold |
Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Wolverhampton Wanderers have had a peculiar string of results since the hiatus. Despite only scoring four goals, Wolves have won three of their four games during Project Restart and have only allowed their opponents to score in one of those matches.
That stingy defense has been the hallmark of Wolves' success this season as Nuno Espirito Santo's side have conceded the third-fewest expected goals against in the Premier League in 2019-20.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Even though expected goals tells us that Wolverhampton are the better defensive side, they've actually allowed more goals against than their opponents for Wednesday's game.
Sheffield United are this season's great overachievers and I mean that in a couple of ways. The Blades certainly deserve a ton of credit for hanging in the top-10 of the Premier League despite their miniscule-by-EPL-standards budget. But they're also a bit smoke-and-mirrors and have had plenty of luck go their way in 2019-20.
The Blades are a well-organized side and have a great goalkeeper in Dean Henderson, but their defense is a bit overrated. Sheffield United are only allowing one goal per match this season, but their xG suggests they should be conceding 1.44 goals per game.
| Wolves | Sheffield United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for per game | 1.36 | 1.03 |
| Expected goals for per game | 1.63 | 1.35 |
| Goals against per game | 1.09 | 1 |
| Expected goals against per game | 1.11 | 1.44 |
| Total goals per game | 2.45 | 2.03 |
| Total expected goals per game | 2.74 | 2.79 |
On the flip side of the coin, Sheffield United have been a bit snakebitten offensively. The Blades don't have a true talisman up front, so scoring has become a bit of a chore for a team that is creating far more xG (1.35) per match than it is scoring (1.03).
Wolves, too, are due for some offensive regression and should be scoring closer to 1.6 goals per match rather than the 1.36 they currently average.
So while the betting market is expecting a low-event game, I think there are some goals in a game that features two underrated offenses and one overrated defense.
There are a number of ways I'd consider going about betting this game, including the Over 2 at plus-money, but my favorite bet is backing Wolves to run away with the match at a big price.
Not only are Wolves really tough to score against, but they should find some success going forward against a defense that often bends, but doesn't break. I don't think scoring two or three goals is out of the question for Wolves and if their defense continues its sturdy form, a bet on Wolverhampton to win by at least two goals could have plenty of value at +370.
