Premier League Odds, Picks, Preview: Projections, Best Bets, Including Liverpool vs. Leicester City (Feb. 8-10)

The Premier League returns with some midweek action after another round of FA Cup matches, featuring nine matches on an almost full slate of fixtures.

Manchester City has a stranglehold on the title race, currently sitting at -1200 odds to win the English top flight.

However, the odds to finish in the top four is as close as can be, with four legitimate contenders to secure the league's final Champions League spot next season.

Premier League Top Four Odds

*Odds via DraftKings

We'll see how that race plays out throughout the year, but the last UCL berth is vital the three big six clubs above. It's also crucial for West Ham if they want to retain some of their best players like Declan Rice and Jarrod Bowen.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Burnley vs. Man United

Burnley and Manchester United played on Dec. 30, with the latter earning the 3-1 victory and winning on expected goals by a 2.0-0.8 margin.

However, the Clarets didn't play their best possible lineup in that match. Aaron Lennon started up top and Wayne Hennessey was in goal. This time around, though, newly acquired striker Wout Weghorst pairs with Maxwell Cornet on the attack and starter Nick Pope will be back in goal.

Basically, all of Burnley’s issues have come away from Turf Moor. The Clarets have a +1 xGDiff on home soil, versus a -10.8 xGDiff on the road. In fact, Burnley’s defense is only allowing 1.08 xG per match at home and hasn't lost by multiple goals there as well.

Typical Sean Dyche teams are going to allow a ton of low quality shots, with this season being no different. The Clarets are dead last in the Premier League in shots allowed per 90 minutes, but Burnley has done a good job preventing high-quality chances, ranking seventh in big scoring chances conceded. 

Manchester United is currently sitting in the top four with a -1 xGDiff this season.  Since Ralph Rangnick has took over, the Red Devils have played eight EPL matches, putting up a +3.2 xGDiff with only one game against the current top seven. They’ve been horrific defensively away from home, allowing 1.81 xG per match, per fbref.com.

I only have Manchester United projected at +104, so I love Burnley getting a goal on the spread line at -120 or better and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Burnley +1 (-120)

Man City vs. Brentford 

When Brenford and Manchester City met earlier in the season, the Bees had maybe the most impressive defensive performance against the Cityzens of anyone this season. They held the the league leaders to only 1.09 xG goals, 17 shot-creating actions and 24 touches in the penalty area.

All of those are numbers were Manchester City’s lowest outputs in a match this season across all competitions.

*(graphic via infogol.net)

This is another match against one of the big boys where the Bees are going to likely get pinned into their own third, so the question is how long can they hold off the Cityzens. Manchester City is back to its slow possession, dominant style we saw last season. On average, the Cityzens are holding more than 67% possession, which helps their defense put up the incredible underlying metrics like allowing only 0.66 NPxG per match and a total of 13 big scoring chances.

So, it’s really hard for me to see how Brentford, who is 17th in shots per 90 minutes and second to last in box entries, being productive.

I only have 2.73 goals projected for this match, as Manchester City matches are only averaging a total of 2.93 xG and 35% of its matches have cleared 3.5 goals. That said, I love total staying under 3.5 goals at -110 odds.

Pick: Total Under 3.5 Goals (-110)

Norwich vs. Crystal Palace

Sure, Norwich City got a road win against Watford before the break, but they're still the worst team in the Premier League. Even though they suffered the 3-0 loss, the Hornets actually won the xG battle by a 1.1 to 0.7 margin, per fbref.com. Needless to say,  the Norwich offense is still really struggling to create high-quality chances.

The Canaries have only created more than one xG once in their last seven matches and sit last in xG, shots per 90 minutes and big scoring chances. 

Now, they have to go up against one of the best EPL defenses, as Crystal Palace is only allowing 1.1 NPxG per match and has allowed the second-fewest big scoring chances. When the Eagles previously played the Canaries, they went ahead 3-0 in the first half and rode out the match in the second half. Also, Palace was without Conor Gallagher and Wilfried Zaha for that meeting.

Crystal Palace’s offense has really been improving over the past two months, creating 10.6 xG in their last seven matches, including putting up 2.2 xG against Liverpool before the international break.

The Eagles tend to struggle against high pressing teams, ranking 15th in Offensive PPDA this season. However, Norwich is last in pressure success rate. So, I think this is a great spot for Crystal Palace to pick up all three points.

I have Crystal Palace projected at -106, so I like the value on them at +115 via its moneyline wager in this game.

Pick: Crystal Palace ML (+115)

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Liverpool vs. Leicester City

This is a massive revenge spot for Liverpool, who lost to Leicester City about a month ago in a 1-0 defeat despite completely dominating the match. The Reds held a 2.5-0.6 xG edge over the Foxes, plus they had a whopping 74 touches in their penalty area. And Mohamed Salah missed his first penalty since 2017.

The loss also gave Manchester City a big advantage in the title race, so I assume Liverpool will be out for blood, especially since it was so recent. 

Liverpool’s offense is obviously one of the best in the world, averaging 2.46 xG per match, which is the best mark in the Premier League. In contrast, Leicester  has one of the worst EPL defenses. The Foxes are allowing 1.82 xG per match, 16.1 shots per 90 minutes and 1.5 big scoring chances per match. All of those are in the bottom five in the English top flight.

It gets bad when they have to face the top seven teams as well, because the Foxes are allowing on 2.46 xG and 2.5 big scoring chances per match.

Even this past weekend, Leicester played its “A” lineup against Championship side Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup and got blown out in a 4-1 rout. Even if Salah and Sadio Mané aren't available, Liverpool has plenty of attacking talent to destroy Leicester City's defense like it did last time they met.

I have Liverpool’s spread projected at -2.46, so I love the favored side’s line of -1.5 at -135 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (-135)