Sunday Premier League Odds & Picks: Tottenham vs. Manchester United (Oct. 4)

Manchester United vs. Tottenham Odds

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Manchester United and Tottenham face off in a high-profile battle at Old Trafford on Sunday. These matches are typically back-and forth-affairs and are even harder to predict early on in the season. An additional storyline will be Jose Mourinho taking on his old club, and I am very excited to see how this one plays out.

Manchester United

The Red Devils have had a bit of a slow start to the season, albeit only two games. They needed a last-second penalty to sneak past Brighton last week, and lost to Crystal Palace 3-1 to start their campaign. From an xG perspective, they should have lost both matches (1.58-2.98 vs Brighton and 1.10-1.98 vs Crystal Palace). It's concerning given those aren't top-eight sides, but I will concede both clubs have outperformed thus far.

Now, it is only two games and I'm not going to overreact. Last season the Red Devils generated 1.74 xG/game (fourth-most in EPL) and only conceded 1.00 xGA/game (third-fewest in EPL), which is why most experts think they are one of the major contenders for the top four. I don't doubt they get this thing going, but they just aren't clicking yet.

Tottenham

Spurs are one of the more frustrating teams to back at the moment. They don't play an open and attacking style of soccer, and I'm still having nightmares of that 94th-minute handball that somehow caused them to draw against Newcastle. The score line should have been 3-0 in xG if we leave out the ridiculous penalty that was called.

The previous match they got a bit fortunate in their win over Southampton (even xG), and created more chances in their loss to Everton as well (1.27-0.82).

I like them here in this spot. Man United have looked poor to start, and I actually have liked what Spurs have done. It is at Old Trafford, but I think Jose will have this experienced side ready for the challenge tomorrow. Their new signing, Sergio Reguilon, will be excited to make an impact, and Harry Kane will make an impact. The only caution I would give is Son Heung-Min's status. He came off the pitch against Newcastle and it's unclear how fit he is. This will be a stay-away for me and probably an under bet if he's a no-go. If he plays, I will be taking Spurs +0.5.

Betting Analysis & Pick

This really is a tough call and would be a smaller play of mine. I think Spurs are playing better than Manchester United, and this could very easily be a draw.

If Son plays, I really like how he and Kane have been playing together. If he doesn't play, Mourinho could park the bus, and I would bet the under. For now, let's assume Son plays. I will take Spurs +0.5.

The Pick: Tottenham +0.5 (-112) if Son plays, Under 2.75 (-122) if Son is out

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