Premier League Odds & Predictions | Best Bets For Everton vs Brighton & More

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Dabbundo: West Ham picked up a victory in the EFL Cup at home against Arsenal on Wednesday, but the Hammers will now play their fourth match in 10 days on Saturday when they travel across London to face Brentford. Not only do Brentford have the rest advantage, but the Bees have a personnel advantage too. West Ham will be without Edson Alvarez and Lucas Paqueta due to yellow card accumulation suspensions.

The Hammers' attack without Paqueta is still heavily reliant on central striker Michail Antonio, and his numbers are in stark decline. He had that vintage performance against Brighton in match week 3, but his season-long numbers suggest he’s really showing his age. The 33-year-old forward has attempted three total shots in his last five matches. He’s producing 0.13 xG per match and that’s just not enough to overcome how conservative David Moyes wants to be with committing numbers forward.

Their defense held up pretty well in the 1-0 loss to Everton last Sunday, but that had more to do with Everton’s decision not to really attack once leading. The Hammers are 18th in shots allowed, which is about normal for them. What isn’t normal is conceding big chances, lots of xGA (16th) and a ton of ball progression (20th in ball progression allowed). The lack of a true ball stopper in midfield is an issue and the center backs are getting exposed more as a result.

West Ham are an elite set piece attack, but it’s difficult to exploit Brentford there. The Bees are excellent at both ends in set piece efficiency and they should be a minus-odds favorite here. I project Brentford -121 in this match and would bet them at -110 or better to take all three points.

Pick: Brentford ML (+112 via BetRivers) 

Cunningham: This match was completely off the rails last season, with Everton putting on a counterattacking clinic and beating Brighton 5-1.

I wonder what Everton are going to do in this match. It was very clear from the kickoff that Fulham were not going to take Brighton’s bait. They played a very narrow 4-4-2 out of possession, which caused Brighton a lot of problems.

I think what people forget about that match is Brighton took 24 shots, controlled 78% of the possession and created 3.2 expected goals, which was their fifth-highest output of the season under De Zerbi. So, the Everton defense really wasn’t that solid. Brighton only created 1.4 expected goals against a narrow Fulham low block, but were constantly threatening the penalty area, posting 17 box entries. That match was also bad spot for Brighton, as they were coming off a Europa League match and it was their third match of the week. Since they are out of the League Cup, they’ve had a full week of rest now – so we will see a full strength Brighton lineup.

Everton, however, can really cause problems for Brighton in transition opportunities. Brighton are 18th in final third to box entry conversion rate. They are not going to be as passive as Fulham were against Brighton and most importantly, they are a much better offense. Everton are averaging 1.54 npxG per 90 minutes and if you take out their matches against Liverpool and Arsenal, Everton have created over 1 expected goal in six of their other eight matches.

I have 3.7 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

Pick:Over 3 (-108 via bet365) 

Saturday, Nov. 4th

11 a.m. ET

Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: I don’t really know how Burnley score here.

Even though Vincent Kompany wants his team to play attractive football, building out of the back and overloading the last line of defense, Burnley have done nothing in attack this year. The Clarets are only averaging 0.85 npxG per 90 minutes, which wasn’t bad for a historically bad Sheffield United team. But it would be the worst mark in the Premier League. It’s a slow build up too. Per The Analyst, Burnley have the second-lowest direct speed behind only Manchester City.

Crystal Palace did a fantastic job for the first 50 minutes of the match against Tottenham at limiting Spurs' central progression and forcing them to create chances in the wide areas. James Madison’s positioning was often in the wide areas because that is where Tottenham were trying to create their overloads. Crystal Palace’s defense has been unlocked when they are playing elite attacking sides that can carve you open when they have time and space on the ball.

Against bottom half of the table competition this season, which includes their matches against Sheffield United, Wolves, Fulham, and Nottingham Forest, they have allowed only 3.3 expected goals and one big scoring chance.

The teams that have wrecked Burnley and put up a ton of goals on them are teams that will press high and disrupt build up play. Palace are a pretty passive team, so they aren’t going to get those golden transition opportunities most teams have gotten once they force a high turnover.

I have BTTS – No projected at -143, so I love the value on the current line of -105.

Pick:Both Teams to Score – No (-105 via DraftKings)

Dabbundo: It’s hard to see how Aston Villa can keep getting away with these subpar defensive metrics. The Villans don’t press the ball out of possession, they don’t keep much possession when playing away from home and their defenders aren’t plus defenders when you look at them on paper or in their underlying stats. As a result of this, the Villans are 16th in big scoring chances conceded, 16th in passes per defensive action and 11th in non-penalty expected goals allowed.

When they play opponents with quality midfield ball progressors and a striker who’s able to get in behind or attack in transition effectively, they get exposed. The return of Taiwo Awoniyi is exactly what Nottingham Forest need to cause chaos for the Villa backline. Awoniyi isn’t getting high shot volume, but his 1-2 excellent shots per game usually come from close range and in high danger situations.

This will be an interesting tactical battle because Steve Cooper’s Forest have been the most passive out of possession team in the whole league. Villa have often kept less than half of the possession in their away matches this year. Forest’s defensive metrics have taken a clear step forward, they’ve upgraded in goal and it’s helped dramatically improve their goal prevention unit.

The market is overvaluing Villa and that defense is ripe to get exposed away from home. I’d bet Forest to get a result at -115 or better.

Pick: Nottingham Forest +0.5 (+103 via bet365)