Premier League Odds & Predictions: Best Bets, Featuring Chelsea vs Brentford

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Cunningham: This is a good spot for Brentford against a Chelsea side that is still trying to figure out its tactics.

Chelsea are playing a 3-1-6 fluid build up system right now, which is great and a lot of the elite managers in the world have utilized this shape. However, it is only great if you are trying to overload the last line of defense and create width to stretch the defense, but once Chelsea get into the final third, everything gets disjointed and they’re struggling to find the back of the net.

Yes, they scored twice against Arsenal, but the first goal came on a penalty and the second was a wonderstrike from outside the box. Outside of the penalty, Chelsea created just 0.6 xG from open play. They had success in their previous match, beating Burnley 4-1, but they played an aggressive high pressing style that is the exact opposite of what they are going to face against Brentford.

The Bees are so good in these types of matches against teams that struggle once they enter the final third. Their ability to play a 5-3-2 out of possession, clog up the middle of the pitch and keep teams out of their penalty area has caused them to have so much success against the top six. They stifled Chelsea in both meetings last season winning on xG by a combined 2.4 to 2.1 and they did it by holding under 35% possession in both matches.

If Chelsea are going to build up in a 3-1-6, what that does is leave a ton of space in the middle of the pitch for Brentford to do what they do best: win the ball in their own final third and spring a quick transitional attack. It’s one of the reasons why Chelsea have struggled in transition defense, ranking 14th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed.

Additionally, since the start of the 2022-23 season, Brentford have a +12.7 xGD, while Chelsea are at +4.2.

I only have Chelsea projected at -116, so I love the value on Brentford +0.5 at +130.

Pick: Brentford +0.5 (+130 via BetRivers) 

Dabbundo: Through the first nine matches of the season, Everton have considerably better underlying numbers than West Ham. The Hammers' defense has fallen off considerably to the point where they rank 16th out of 20 teams in expected goals allowed per 90. David Moyes’ sides of past seasons would concede possession and territory, but they didn’t allow big scoring chances or large numbers of xGA. 

West Ham are in a tough travel spot after a Thursday road trip to Greece in the Europa League. Their squad depth is being tested, and it’s important to note that the Hammers' struggle for league form in the first half of last year could have been correlated to the extra European matches they played.

It’s true that the Hammers are really passive when playing with a lead and that accounts for some of the extra xGA conceded. But even in negative or even game states, West Ham rank just 12th in xG allowed. They’ve run five goals ahead of their xG this season and most of that can be explained by a hot shot stopping stretch for goalkeeper Alphonse Areola. 

Everton have a real depth and squad fitness issue in the medium and long term right now, but the current crop of attackers are quite effective when fit. The combination of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Beto, Jack Harrison and Abdoulaye Doucoure is a functional Premier League attack. The Toffees are creating high turnovers and getting excellent shot production from their first choice attack.

All of the minutes played by Everton reserves has weighed down just how good this full strength team is. I’d bet the Toffees at -150 or better to get a result on Sunday.

Pick:Everton +0.5 (-136 via BetRivers) 

Sunday, Oct. 29

10 a.m. ET

Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Let's first talk a little bit about Roberto De Zerbi's tactics in the final third, because they are going to be used a lot in this match with Fulham playing a deep low block. De Zerbi's build up shapes often change depending on the opponent, but typically it's a 4-2-4 build up with the fullbacks hugging the touchline to provide width. When they get in the final third those fullbacks tend to push forward to allow the wingers to invert towards the middle of the box or vice versa.

Really what De Zerbi wants his team to accomplish when they are trying to break down a low block is the principal of overload to isolate. What I mean by that is he wants his midfielders and center forward to overload the middle of the pitch, so the defense is forced to stay compact, which in turn gets Karou Mitoma, Solly March, Simon Adingra or Ansu Fati into 1 v 1 situations with the opposing fullback.

Tottenham repeatedly kept inverting Udogie and Pedro Porro into the center of the pitch to aid the attack and try to create numerical advantages centrally to help break down Fulham's low block. De Zerbi does prefer to invert his wingers to make runs in the channel. They did this with great success against Ajax on Thursday in the Europa League.

With the plethora of attackers that Brighton have at the moment, they are such a dangerous team to play against, no matter how you decide to play out of possession. The Seagulls are second in the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals and big scoring chances behind only Newcastle. In fact, their match against Manchester City on Saturday was the first time this season they've been held under 1 xG in a match.

Fulham played a very compact 4-4-2 out of possession against Tottenham on Monday conceding the space in wide areas to make sure that Spurs couldn’t play through the middle of the pitch. For large stretches of the match it was working, but the problem with Fulham is I don’t know if they are 100% clear on whether they are going to play everything long or try to build out of the back. Both of Tottenham’s goal came off of high turnovers, as Fulham’s center backs were incredibly sloppy.

If there is a team that can completely punish you if you are sloppy in build up play, it’s Brighton. The Seagulls are incredibly aggressive with their man to man high press. 

Fulham offensively is really struggling this season because of the loss of Mitrovic and how important he was to their tactical plan going forward in attack, as the Cottagers are only averaging 1.08 npxG per 90 minutes.

I have Brighton's spread projected at -1.59, so I like the value on their spread of -1 at -107 over at bet365.

Pick:Brighton -1 (-107 via bet365)

Dabbundo: Goal scoring and output is up considerably in the Premier League this season across the league, but not for Nottingham Forest and Steve Cooper. The Trees were quite open at the back last season and as a result had one of the worst expected goals allowed numbers and routinely lost in blowout scores to top sides in the league.

Cooper and Forest have been considerably more defensive, passive out of possession and have actually been the lowest event team in the league. You’ve seen Burnley, Bournemouth, Luton Town and Wolves even play more aggressively at the bottom of the table, but Cooper’s side has conceded the third-fewest big scoring chances and ranks 10th in xGA and 12th in box entries conceded.

No defense has been more efficient at preventing teams from gaining entry into the box once they’ve progressed into the final third. This will be a real challenge to keep Liverpool out at Anfield given the Reds’ midfield dynamism and attacking talent. But the Trees won’t be without their chances on the counterattack.

Forest will still likely be without Taiwo Awoniyi, a major part of their attack. A fully fit Morgan Gibbs-White is the player to watch for Forest in transition moments. Liverpool still have plenty of defensive flaws — they concede early in almost every match — which makes covering big spreads against solid defenses a real challenge.

The Reds have outscored most of their opponents this year and they'll probably outscore Forest. But expecting margin is a bigger challenge. I’d bet Forest +1.5 at anything plus-money.

Pick: Nottingham Forest +1.5 (+116 via BetRivers)