Premier League Odds & Predictions | Best Bets For Arsenal vs. Brighton, Brentford vs. Aston Villa

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Cunningham: This is maybe one of the most shocking lines of the Premier League season. 

What has been the main problem for Fulham this season? It’s when they have to step up in competition because they are a terrible team at trying to play out of the back and it’s cost them time and time against when they try to play good pressing teams. Guess what? Newcastle is one of the best pressing teams in the Premier League. 

To say Fulham is due for some regression offensively would be an understatement. Not only in their last four matches have they scored 16 goals off of 8.9 expected goals, but those 16 goals came off only 47 shots. Thats a goal to shot conversion of 34%, the average for all Premier League teams this season is 11%. That is how insane this offensive run has been. 

The reality is for Fulham is they are a much better team when they get to have a majority of the ball and don’t have to sit in their low block for a majority of the match. In eight of their 16 matches this season, in which they have held under 50% possession they have allowed 14.4 expected goals in those matches. 

Newcastle may be gassed, but they are no longer in an injury crisis after getting Callum Wilson, Dan Burn, and Sean Longstaff back. There is no justification for Newcastle being priced this low at home where they have been so dominant for so long, putting up a +1.46 xGD per 90 minutes since the start of last season. 

I have the Magpies projected at -245, so I love the value on the Magpies at home at -115. 

Pick: Newcastle ML (-115 via Caesars) 

Dabbundo: The injury situation for Crystal Palace leaves major questions about how they’ll score in this match. Odsonne Edouard will miss through injury, along with Eberechi Eze and Jordan Ayew (suspension). The entire burden of the attacking intent for Palace in this match will come through Michael Olise, who is still trying to work his way back to full fitness and has had his minutes managed in the last two weeks.

The first choice midfielders Jefferson Lerma and Cheick Doucoure are also expected to be out with injury, which should give Manchester City few problems in controlling this match and winning comfortably. City has one eye on the upcoming clashes in the FIFA Club World Cup, and Pep Guardiola said the hope is that Erling Haaland will be back and fit for that. 

Haaland did return to training on Thursday, but Guardiola has little incentive to risk him for more than a half in this match given the stress fracture foot injury he’s dealing with. The Cityzens can win this match without him, and given that Jeremy Doku is out and Jack Grealish is questionable, the Cityzens will be extremely narrow and potentially without a winger on the pitch for large stretches of this match. 

We saw against Aston Villa that a very narrow City is much easier to defend and this total is too inflated given the spot for City. They played a heavily rotated team in Belgrade on Wednesday, but the recent travel and lookahead to the Club World Cup makes it a great under spot. 

Pick:Under 3.5 goals (-140 via Caesars)

Sunday, Dec. 17th

9 a.m. ET

Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Arsenal has shown some vulnerabilities when they play elite pressing teams. If we go back to the Chelsea match, they turned it over high nine times. Brighton had a PPDA of 8.1 and held Arsenal to a buildup completion percentage of 79.6%, which is one of the lowest of the Mikel Arteta era.

The more interesting dilemma is what Arsenal does out of possession. Do they give Brighton what they want and press them high or do they do what a lot of teams have been very successful at doing against Brighton, which is sit in a very compact defensive shape and don’t take the bait.

Arsenal is one of the best out of possession teams in the world because they are not only an elite pressing team, but they are elite in defending in both transition and set defense. The Gunners are only allowing 0.72 npxG per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season and have allowed the fewest big scoring chances as well, but Brighton is certainly a very difficult opponent to stop.

The Seagulls are not afraid when they go on the road to face a big six club. Since De Zerbi has taken over, in seven away matches against the Big Six, they have a +2.3 xGD.

What has been great about this new version of De Zerbi is Brighton have now turned into one of the best defensive teams in the league. Even when they conceded three goals and 2.1 xG to Chelsea, two goals came off a set piece and another was a penalty. Since October 21st, Brighton have allowed the second fewest non-penalty expected goals in the Premier League at 6.8 in eight matches.

I only have Arsenal projected at -138, so I like the value on Brighton +1 at +115.

Pick: Brighton +1 (+115 via BetRivers) 

Dabbundo: This is the ultimate sell-high spot on Aston Villa after the Villans beat both Manchester City and Arsenal at home last week to vault into the Premier League title race discussion. You’re hearing a lot of pundits claim that Villa is truly in this title race, which is a clear sign that they’re likely over inflated in the market and at the peak of their value. The time to play against Aston Villa is on the road. At home this season, Villa has a +1.2 xG difference per 90 minutes, which is fourth best in the entire league. 

When the Villans play away from Villa Park, they’ve conceded 14.2 xGA in eight matches. They have a -0.35 xGD per 90 and rank 13th overall. Villa won three straight then got smoked at Liverpool. They had a huge away win at Spurs but were outplayed by xG in the match. Their recent away trip to Bournemouth saw them score late to draw 2-2.

Villa still has real flaws out of possession that get exposed on their travels. They rank dead last in xG allowed per set piece, which makes Brentford a nightmare matchup. The Bees will be without striker Bryan Mbeumo and looked terrible at Sheffield United last week, but we’ve seen Brentford look bad as a road favorite then pull an upset as a home underdog so many times since they joined the Premier League two years ago.

It’s a dream spot to back Brentford, and I’d bet them both +0.5 and on the ML on a game that shouldn’t be much worse than a pick’em. 

Pick: Brentford +0.5 (-135 via Caesars); Brentford ML +200 or better