Premier League Odds & Predictions | Best Bets For Arsenal vs Wolves & Newcastle vs Man United

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Dabbundo: Arsenal are in the midst of a historic defensive run at the moment as a club. They’ve conceded 2.85 expected goals in their last six matches including Premier League and Champions League. The attack has certainly had its ups and downs overall, but the market has started to take notice of how dominant the Gunners have been at shutting out opponents. Arsenal have allowed two goals in those six matches, including one of them mired in controversy in an away defeat to Newcastle.   

Now facing a mid-table Premier League attack, Arsenal’s defense is undervalued. Wolves have consistently showed a real threat against the top sides in the league — they beat Spurs and Manchester City, scored in the first 10 minutes against Liverpool and tied Newcastle 2-2. Gary O’Neil’s squad has taken on a similar profile to his Bournemouth one in the second half of last season as an excellent transition side that doesn’t need a ton of possession to do damage. 

O’Neil’s Bournemouth scored at the Emirates in seven seconds in the spring. Even playing without Pedro Neto, Wolves have sustained quality attacking numbers. They rank 10th in big scoring chances, 12th in build-up completion rate, seventh in xG per set piece and 12th in xG per 90. 

As dominant as Arsenal’s defense is, odds on to keep a clean sheet against a midtable attacking side like Wolves is too much respect to the Gunners, even at home. I’d bet Wolves to score at -115 or better.

Pick: Wolves Team Total Over 0.5 (-104 via BetRivers) 

Cunningham: Taiwo Awoniyi is out for his match, which is massive for their attack. He’s been a 0.49 xG per 90 minute striker this season and the next closest player who has played over eight matches is Morgan Gibbs-White who has a 0.21 xG per 90 minute scoring rate. That means it will likely be Chris Wood up for Nottingham Forest. He has been good in a very small sample size this season, but he's barely played over the past three seasons.

Everton offensively have drastically underperformed their underlying numbers, as they've only scored 14 goals off of 20.3 expected, so they are due for positive regression. There is a pretty simple reason why Everton have improved so much offensively this season. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been healthy and productive in front of net.

Outside of the match against Manchester United, Everton have been poor against good competition, but in seven matches against teams in the bottom half of the table, Everton have a +5.8 expected goals differential and have only lost the xG battle one time.

So, I think Everton should be more of a sizable favorite here on the road, so I like the value on them Draw no Bet at -113

Pick:Everton – Draw No Bet (-113 via bet365) 

Saturday, Dec. 2nd

3 p.m. ET

USA Network

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Man United are overperforming drastically right now in the Premier League. Since October 7th, they have picked up 15 points in six matches. They have 7.8 expected points during that time frame.

We’ve already seen this match one time before. In the League Cup at Old Trafford, Newcastle rotated pretty much their entire squad and won the match 3-0.

Newcastle struggled defensively against PSG in the Champions League on Tuesday, but PSG are an elite build up team and Mbappe and Dembele are two of the best attacking players in the world. United don't have that at the moment. They certainly do not have a way to progress the ball through Newcastle’s high press without Martinez, Casemiro, Eriksen or Mount, and even if they try they’re going to continually turn the ball over and we are going to have a repeat of what has happened the last two times these two teams have faced off against each other.

Last season, Newcastle beat Manchester United at St. James Park 2-0 and won on xG 3.7 to 0.4. In that match, Newcastle had a PPDA of 7.2, forced nine high turnovers and outshot Manchester United in the penalty box 16 to 5.

They’ve had an extra day of rest as both them and Manchester United had to travel away to play their Champions League matches and this is Newcastle at St. James Park that have a +1.48 xGD per 90 minutes since the start of last season and just thrashed Chelsea 4-1.

I have Newcastle projected at -155, so I love the value on them at +100.

Pick: Newcastle ML (-105 via BetMGM) 

Dabbundo: There are significant injury concerns for both attacks ahead of this London derby on Sunday. Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio didn’t play for West Ham in the fortunate comeback win at Burnley, and the result was less than one expected goal and a late flurry to steal all three points. They played a somewhat rotated side in the Europa League on Thursday and managed just 0.6 xG in that match. That means the last two matches without their top two attacking options have resulted in two of their three worst offensive performances of the season. The other worst came without Lucas Paqueta against Everton.

It’s clear just how little depth there is for the Hammers in the attack right now and how reliant they are on set pieces to generate consistent scoring opportunities. In this matchup against Crystal Palace, the Eagles are seventh in xG per set piece allowed. The Eagles will come into this matchup in a defensive set up, forcing West Ham onto the ball to create as the home favorite.

The Hammers haven’t excelled in this spot as they lack the passing quality in midfield to consistently break down defensive blocks like the one they’ll see on Sunday. Eberechi Eze has been Palace’s best attacking player all year and he’ll miss this match as well. Michael Olise is enough to sustain something for Palace on the break, but the two of them together is a considerably more daunting presence in transition.

As much as West Ham’s defense has really struggled this year, the lack of attacking quality at both ends leaves this total a bit too high. I’d bet under 2.5 at -120 or better.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-120 via DraftKings)