Premier League Odds & Predictions | Best Bets For Brentford vs Arsenal, Fulham vs Wolves

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Dabbundo: This isn’t all that different from the matchup between Chelsea and Brentford a weeks ago. The Gunners are elite at keeping possession in the opponent’s final third, but their inability to consistently break down low blocks has been a persistent issue for the club this season. Arsenal are third in final third entries and third in box entries, but they rank just eighth in shots per match, ninth in big scoring chances and 12th in non-penalty xG this year. 

Most of the issues have come because Arsenal hasn’t been nearly as good at progressing the ball through the middle of the pitch. Injuries to Gabriel Jesus and regression from Martin Odegaard have both contributed to the overall decline in attacking output. Another reason is the extreme control that Mikel Arteta is forcing his club to play with.

The approach has paid off in the name of historically dominant defensive output. It’s made Arsenal a boring watch for the casual, but they pitched two near shutouts to Sheffield United (0.02 xG) and Sevilla (0.01 xG), and they nearly did the same to Burnley (0.3 xG) in the last few matches. Newcastle managed to reach 1 xG, but almost all of it came on the controversial VAR decision from a broken play. 

The improved ball winning in midfield and the fully healthy defense has led to sustainably elite output. Brentford are always a danger on set pieces and in transition, but this total is too high given Arsenal’s extreme control approach. The Gunners will have most of the ball and probably take more shots, but the Gunners will struggle to get high quality ones. 

I’d bet under 2.5 at -110 or better.

Pick: Under 2.5 (-103 via FanDuel) 

Cunningham: Given where these two clubs are at form wise and given Tottenham’s injury situation, I really think that Tottenham are overvalued. 

As it stands right now, Tottenham are going to be without James Madison, Mickey van de Ven, Cristian Romero, Yves Bissouma and Richarlison. Destiny Udogie is questionable as well. Against Wolves, Postecoglu decided to play Ben Davies and Eric Dier as the center back pairing, which is not an ideal scenario. 

Aston Villa have been rolling by beating bad competition, winning four of their last five matches and putting up some fantastic underlying numbers.

What has made them so good is their tactical versatility. Villa want to control possession, but they’ve also shown a great ability defending without the ball in their 4-4-2 mid block. They do like to play a high line, condensing the space in between the lines, but really only Liverpool and Newcastle have exploited them for 5.8 combined xG. In their other 10 matches, Villa are only allowing 1.01 xG per 90 minutes and have only conceded five big scoring chances as well. 

With all of the injuries Tottenham are dealing with, I think Aston Villa should be a road favorite, so I like the value on Unai Emery’s side.

Pick:Aston Villa – Draw No Bet (+115 via Caesars) 

Sunday, Nov. 26th

11:30 a.m. ET

USA Network

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: After the Premier League deducted 10 points from Everton during the international break, the Toffees are in a home run spot at home hosting Manchester United on Sunday. From an on-field performance perspective this season (11 matches), the Toffees have a better expected goal differential. Combine that with the fact that the injuries keep piling up for the Red Devils and you have a situation where Everton should probably be the favorite at home.

You could squint and say that Manchester United turned in consecutive quality 11-on-11 performances for the first time all season. The opening 30 minutes at Copenhagen before the red card and the full 90 minute controlled 1-0 win against Luton Town were a glimpse of what could be. New striker Rasmus Hojlund is now injured and unlikely to play in this match. Christian Eriksen has also been ruled out and both goalkeeper Andre Onana and right back Aaron Wan-Bissaka are questionable.

Manchester United could be without the entire spine of the team aside from Bruno Fernandes. That likely means Anthony Martial at striker, major problems in build-up play and potentially a downgrade in goal with shot stopping. Everton dealt with an early season injury crisis, but the Toffees are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this year.

The most impressive stat for Everton this season is that despite playing a more aggressive and open style this year, Sean Dyche’s side is second in big scoring chances allowed and fourth in non-penalty xG conceded. Everton’s entire statistical profile is better than Manchester United and I’d bet them at any underdog number here.

Pick: Everton – Draw No Bet (+107 via bet365) 

Cunningham: The biggest problem that Fulham re running into is when they are out of possession, they are playing incredibly narrow to prevent teams from playing through the center of their low block, which they have been successful with at times. But, when they win the ball, they do not have the personnel to build up through the center of the pitch or even outlets to be able to play the ball into wide areas. Bobby Reid is the only player for Fulham right now that is over a 0.30 xG per 90 minute scoring rate.

Fulham used to be a team with a distinct identity, which was to get the ball into wide areas and swing in crosses to Aleksander Mitrovic, but now that he’s gone Marco Silva seems lost on how to set his team up to consistently create chances.

The other problem for Fulham is that they are going to be without their best player, Joao Palhinha, who is out due to yellow card suspension. He is massive in terms of their ball stopping in the middle of the pitch when Wolves get going in their transition attacks. He has 69 tackles + interceptions this season, while nobody else in the midfield has more than 15. Not to mention, he is also tied as their leading goal scorer with two goals.

The job that Gary O’Neill has done at Wolves has been nothing short of tremendous. You will not find a team that works harder off the ball than Wolves is right now. O’Neill has them set up to press out of a mid-block and their pressing numbers are around the Premier League average, but they lead the Premier League in Ball recoveries per 90 minutes and have been incredibly successful winning ground duals in the middle of the pitch.

There is a chance that Pedro Neto plays on Monday, which would be huge, but even if he doesn’t play, Hee Chan Hwang has been amazing this season.

With Fulham being without Palhinha and given how terrible this offense has been, I don’t think they should be favored in this match even if they are at home. I like the value on Wolves draw no bet at +120.

Pick: Wolves – Draw No Bet (+120 via FanDuel)