Premier League Odds & Predictions | Best Bets For Crystal Palace vs Liverpool & More

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Dabbundo: Liverpool have the second-largest delta between home and away expected goal difference in the league. The Reds have the best xG difference at home in the Premier League and they’ve played more like a league average team away from home. They have three wins, four draws and one loss away from home, and Alisson’s plus shot stopping is a large reason why they’ve grabbed more results than deserved.

With him out injured, the Reds are considerably more vulnerable to teams who play on the break and can get in behind this defense. Liverpool’s defense hasn’t been as bad from a set piece perspective as last year, but they’re still below average in xG per set piece allowed. Crystal Palace won’t have Eberechi Eze for this match, but the Eagles are an above average transition attacking side with Michael Olise fit and are above average on xG per set piece.

The Eagles closed +0.5 against healthy Spurs at the peak of their form. They closed +0.5 at home against Arsenal in match week 2. Now, the market is moving against them and has road Liverpool taking money despite the Reds looking a bit exhausted in their routine 2-0 win at Sheffield United on Wednesday.

Liverpool probably will win this match, even away from home, but they drop points more often than they win it by multiple goals against a stingy Palace home defense that will cede possession to the Reds and take away chances for Liverpool to run in transition.

Pick: Crystal Palace +1 (+106 via bet365) 

Cunningham: The playbook on Roberto De Zerbi's Brighton is out and good low block teams are starting figure him out. Brighton do not have a plan B. De Zerbi is going to build out of the back and try to the opponent into pressing to exploit the space once teams take the bait. So, what happens when teams don't take the bait? Teams are playing incredibly narrow to not allow Brighton to play through the middle of the pitch. De Zerbi hasn’t been fazed by this, as he has his team now building up in a 4-2-2-2.

While good low block teams have been able to stifle Brighton, Burnley are the furthest thing from that. Vincent Kompany wants his team to play on the front foot and press from a front line of four, but the problem is it's not working against good build up teams. Burnley are 14th in PPDA and 16th in high turnovers, which is a major problem because their high press is what largely what made them so good in the Championship last season.

So, Kompany has switched things up and played more passive out of possession against good teams. They've tried this recently against Arsenal and Chelsea, but it has not worked at all. They conceded a combined seven goals and 3.7 expected goals in those two matches, so I don't think they have a good plan to stop Brighton's buildup.

These are the spots where Brighton thrives because since De Zerbi has taken over, they have a +19.1 xGD in just 15 matches against the bottom half of the table at home.

I like the value on Brighton's spread -1.5 at +125.

Pick:Brighton -1.5 (+125 via bet365) 

Saturday, Dec. 2nd

10 a.m. ET

Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Erik ten Hag was on the verge of losing his job as manager at Manchester United until a recent run of good form in the league earned him Premier League manager of the month in November. The Red Devils have vaulted themselves into sixth in the table despite a league average expected and goal differential. The market took special notice to their best performance of the entire season, a dominant 2-1 win at home against Chelsea on Wednesday.

It moved United from a consensus -155 three-way moneyline price in his match all the way up north of -180 and near -185. Much like how the market overreacted in downgrading them off Saturday’s uncompetitive 1-0 loss at Newcastle, it has overreacted in upgrading them for Wednesday’s win. The Red Devils doubled up Chelsea on shots 27-13, won xG 4.1-1.5, but the same defensive flaws still exist for them.

Scott McTominay is in the midst of an elite goal scoring run and he’s the club’s leading goal scorer. He’s been critical getting forward and getting shots from midfield, which has always been his best skill. The choice to start him in a double pivot leaves United vulnerable in possession. Bournemouth’s press has made consistent improvements under Andoni Iraola.

Credit to the Cherries for not overreacting to a poor start to the season that saw them in the relegation zone. No team is more improved in the last six weeks from a results and underlying performance perspective than the Cherries as they continue to learn and adapt to the system.

Now laying a full goal, Manchester United are overvalued in a tricky spot. Fresh off their biggest win of the season, with Bayern in the Champions League looming, I’ll fade United once again.

Pick: Bournemouth +1 (+102 via BetRivers) 

Cunningham: Sean Dyche’s Everton put in a masterclass type of performance against Newcastle on Thursday. They won the match 3-0 and beat Newcastle on expected goals 3.2 to 1.3.

After that incredible performance, the Toffees have a +4.1 xGD and the tactical plan that Dyche has them set up in is really working. Everton have two different tactical plans. There is the first one where they will relentlessly press you man to man to try and force high turnovers, which has worked to great success. The second is Dyche going back to his old ways at Burnley and sitting in a mid-block trying to limit central progression from the opponent and force the ball out wide.

Overall for the season, Everton have been one of the best teams in the Premier League of limiting high quality chances because they have conceded the fourth-fewest non-penalty expected goals and the second-fewest big scoring chances.

Outside of the obvious issues in build up here for Chelsea there two other areas of massive concern. First, they’ve been a bad transition defense this season. When the Blues do lose ball or aren’t effective enough with their high press teams have been able to get into their penalty box with ease, as Chelsea rank 19th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed.

The Blues are also 14th in xG allowed per set piece, which is always bad news when you face a Dyche-coached team.

Everton have been incredible at Goodison Park this season putting up a +6.8 xGD and there really isn’t a reason that Chelsea should be favored here. I have this match projected right at a pick’em, so I like the value on Everton draw no bet at +123.

Pick: Everton –  Draw No Bet (+123 via BetRivers)