Premier League Odds & Predictions | Best Bets For Liverpool vs Arsenal

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Dabbundo: Everton are well set up to hit Spurs on the break and bypass the Tottenham high press in this match by being extremely direct in possession and not trying to build out of the back against a Spurs press that is very capable of forcing high turnovers. The Toffees are aggressive defensively out of possession and rank second in the league in tackles + interceptions per 90, and they’ll be very comfortable getting into a frenetic matchup full of possession turnovers in this match.

The key difference between the two sides in the underlying numbers is that Spurs are much worse in transition defense than Everton. Very quietly, Sean Dyche’s side is putting up top five defensive numbers in the league, while Tottenham’s defense has taken a backward slide under Ange Postecoglou. Spurs have gotten away with it and actually conceded fewer goals than at this point last season because they’ve vastly improved at goalkeeper and they haven't run as poorly with the opponent’s finishing against them.

Everton are the most improved team in the PL year over year to the point where their underlying numbers are better than Spurs. Tottenham will be without two key ball winners and transition defenders in Yves Bissouma and Destiny Udogie, while winger Brennan Johnson is also likely to miss. 

Everton have the better non-penalty xG difference. They allow a lower average shot quality and should be lined closer to a tossup than the market is indicating here. Spurs have righted the ship after a poor run of form, but it’s time to buy the Toffees yet again on the road.  

Pick: Everton +0.5 (+107 via BetRivers) 

Cunningham: The Luton Town defense has completely fallen off a cliff and unfortunately they lost their best defender Tom Lockyer maybe for perhaps the rest of the season. 

Luton Town have played a lot of big boys recently, but the defensive performances recently have been incredibly poor. In their last nine matches, they have allowed 25.3 expected goals and 19 big scoring chances. Additionally, when they have played teams inside the top nine, it’s gone really poorly as they have allowed 17.8 expected goals in nine matches. 

The other problem is their style of play is going to play right into Newcastle’s hands. Newcastle are one of, if not, the best transition team in the Premier League. Luton Town are going to send the ball long from goal kicks to evade Newcastle’s press, which is going to force them to get into a transition based match with them. 

Luton Town’s best method of approach is to hand the ball to Newcastle, play in their low block and dare Newcastle to break them down. The problem is, Luton Town haven't been good in their low block, which is why they are allowing so many chances to the top teams in the Premier League. 

Newcastle, despite playing so many matches and seemingly are gassed, are still the best offense in terms of non-penalty expected goals and have created the most big scoring chances. However, this is Newcastle away from home where they haven’t been as good and quite frankly their defense falls off a cliff. At St. James Park, they are only allowing 0.76 xG per 90 minutes, while on the road they are allowing 1.85 xG per 90 minutes. 

This match has the potential to be a back and forth basketball type match once that first goal goes in. I have 4.1 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the over.

Pick:Over 2.5 (-125 via Caesars)

Saturday, Dec. 23rd

10 a.m. ET

Peacock

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Fulham will be without Raul Jimenez for the second consecutive match after he was sent off last weekend at Newcastle. Jimenez has had a recent resurgence as Fulham striker, and the backups to him don’t offer much in terms of shot production and attacking quality. The Cottagers have scored 13 goals in their last three league matches at home against Wolves, Nottingham Forest and West Ham, and now they will face an even weaker Burnley side at home on Saturday.

Fulham’s underlying attacking profile with Jimenez wasn’t particularly good, and without him it’s hard to see how they get real margin in this match as a solid home favorite. Even after this recent outburst of goals, we saw on Tuesday in the EFL Cup at Everton what this Fulham attack really is. They scored on an own goal but failed to clear 0.5 xG in the 1-1 draw and eventual penalty shootout win.

The Cottagers rank 15th for the season in non-penalty xG, 16th in shots per 90 and they rank dead last at turning possession into final third into penalty box touches. Facing a Burnley attack that doesn’t have a reliable second attacker next to Zeki Amdouni, the Clarets rank in the bottom three in xG from open play, xG from set plays, shots per match, crosses into the box and expected threat. 

Fulham’s aggressive style of defending should cause some problems for Burnley’s build-up attacks, but the Cottagers are not efficient at turning those high turnovers into high quality shots. I’d bet the under 2.5 at -110 or better.

Pick: Under 2.5 (+100 via BetRivers) 

Cunningham: Arsenal’s ability to control this match and tilt the field on Liverpool is concerning for the Reds because they are not a team that is good in rest defense. There has only been one instance this season where Liverpool has played at team at Arsenal’s level in terms of defense and ball control – Manchester City. 

In that match, Manchester City were by far the better side, creating 1.8 expected goals, having a 71.2% field tilt and a 91% build up completion percentage. The Liverpool press was non-existent in that match because they had a PPDA of 17.4. So, if they are forced to sit in a defensive block for a majority of the match, I am not sure they are going to be able to keep Arsenal out.

Not only has Arsenal’s press been incredibly effective, but they are also great defending in transition. Liverpool put up close to four expected goals against the Gunners last season, but that was Arsenal without William Saliba. This season, Arsenal are allowing only 0.72 npxG per 90 minutes and have conceded just six big scoring chances in 17 matches. 

Arsenal have also been the best defensive team away from home this season, allowing only 6.5 expected goals in eight away matches and have a +6.7 xGD away from the Emirates, which is second-best in the Premier League. 

I have Arsenal projected as a road favorite, so I love the value on them draw no bet.

Pick: Arsenal – Draw No Bet (+114 via FanDuel)