Here's everything you need to know about Premier League predictions and odds for Brentford vs Liverpool, Newcastle vs Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest vs West Ham and Luton Town vs Manchester United. BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
If you'd like to see our projections for the Premier League matches and a number of other leagues, you can find them here.
Here are our weekend Premier League odds & predictions.
Premier League Odds & Predictions
| Brentford Odds | +400 |
| Liverpool Odds | -163 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -211 / +160 |
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Dabbundo: Not only is Ivan Toney back in the lineup and a key contributor to the Bees' eight goals in four matches, but Brentford will have Yoanne Wissa and Frank Onyeka back from the Africa Cup of Nations for this match. Both went deep in the tournament with their respective countries and were key losses in attacking and midfield areas. Wissa had produced 2.5 shots per 90, 0.48 xG + xA per 90 and is an excellent partner to potentially combine with Toney in the attacking two. If Thomas Frank opts to stick with Neal Maupay as a starter instead, the Bees will then have some much needed second half attacking depth.
Brentford have really struggled defensively in the last two months and the absence of Onyeka in the midfield is a major contributor to that. He's one of the best and most active defenders in midfield out of possession.
There are a few areas where Liverpool aren't elite defensively, and it's the same flaws where Brentford exploited them last season when the Bees beat Liverpool at home. Brentford excel at creating big scoring chances and the Reds rank just 10th in total big scoring chances conceded. The Bees are always great on set pieces and the Reds are 15th in xGA per set piece allowed.
The market is still underrating Brentford's attack — as it has for their entire time in the Premier League — because they have a low number of box entries and possession. They don't tilt the field often on their opponents, but the Bees are still eighth in xG per 90, eighth in big scoring chances and third-most efficient at turning final third possession into box touches and shots.
For that reason, they’re live at home against Liverpool on Saturday catching a full goal.
Pick: Brentford +1 (-114 via BetRivers)
| Newcastle Odds | -106 |
| Bournemouth Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -211 / +160 |
Cunningham: The new version of Newcastle has some weaknesses that can be easily exploited. First off, they are back to pressing aggressively out of their 4-3-3 instead of the passive 4-5-1 that we saw for an extended period of time. They are pushing their back line up high and going man to man marking the opposing attacking players, which is incredibly aggressive and dangerous because of the personnel they have across their backline.
Newcastle’s backline of Schar, Botman, Burn and Trippier is slow by Premier League standards and since they switched to this new pressing structure both Luton Town and Nottingham Forest have utilized their pace to get in behind their back line to create chances.
The Newcastle defense has been in shambles for a long time now, as they’ve conceded the most expected goals in the Premier League since the start of November and in their last seven matches they’ve conceded 17 big scoring chances, so it seemx Eddie Howe has decided to just go for it and make matches incredibly high event.
Bournemouth have a lot of pace and quite frankly plays much better when they are in transition, which is where this match is most likely going to be played.
The previous meeting between these two was the first sign that Bournemouth had turned the corner under Iraola. In that match, Bournemouth created a bunch of high turnovers and ended up with 2.4 expected goals in the match. Since that match on November 11th, Bournemouth are averaging 1.78 expected goals per 90 minutes and have created at least one expected goal in 12 straight matches.
I have 3.8 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over at +125.
Pick:Over 3.5 (+125 via DraftKings)
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +137 |
| West Ham Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
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Dabbundo: Now that Anthony Elanga, Taiwo Awoniyi, Morgan Gibbs-White and Neco Williams are all fit at the same time, Nottingham Forest have a very solid attacking unit. Awoniyi hasn't been fit that much, but he's scored 15 goals in 25 games for Forest with 0.42 xG per 90 across two seasons. Gibbs-White and Williams offer a ton of creative production, Chris Wood is a solid plan B striker in the second half and the Trees have had no issues scoring goals since Nuno Espirito-Santo became manager.
They've managed 13 total goals in seven games under Espirito-Santo. They've done this while conceding 1.4 xGA per match under him. It's a solid improvement from their numbers under Steve Cooper.
West Ham are one of the worst defenses in the entire Premier League this season and that's supposed to be the calling card of a David Moyes team. Given how passive and conservative they are, it's been far too easy to play through the Hammers. They rank 20th in box entries, 20th in progressive passes allowed, 20th in crosses allowed and 16th in non-penalty xG allowed. The only thing the Hammers do well defensively is stopping set pieces and shot-stopping.
The Hammers are bottom three in pass completion rate allowed, high turnovers forced and expected threat. If you're going to be an extremely passive defense, you better at least be able to prevent box entries or shots.
Outside of their goalkeeper issues, Nottingham Forest is healthier and better at both ends of the pitch. The Trees are trending up in attack with everyone healthy and now have multiple key players back from AFCON in midfield and defense. I’d back them to take all three points at home at +120 or better.
Pick: Nottingham Forest ML (+140 via DraftKings)
| Luton Town Odds | +300 |
| Manchester United Odds | -125 |
| Draw | +010 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
Cunningham: The match against Aston Villa truly encapsulated how flawed Manchester United are out of possession. Basically all of Aston Villa’s chances came when they were playing in transition. Why were they playing in transition in the first place? It comes down to Erik Ten Hag’s philosophy. Manchester United have been really good at forcing high turnovers this season and Ten Hag sees it as a way to create offense, but that is it. He uses his attacking players to press the first phase of build up, but he has his defensive line back because he doesn’t want to get beat over the top.
What that does is leaves Manchester United’s midfield that doesn’t have a lot of ball winning to begin with incredibly exposed to transition attacks. There are countless times where teams are running with numbers at Manchester United’s backline and creating chances off those transition opportunities and Luton Town is going to be no different.
You may be shocked to hear this, but Manchester United have allowed the most set piece attempts this season at 115. What that tells me is they’ve been very poor defending in their own final third, giving away a lot of fouls or giving away a lot of corners. They’ve been very average defending corners and crosses overall this season, so do not be surprised to see Luton Town create a lot of chances in this match.
Now, while Manchester United have been terrible out of possession, their offense has actually been pretty good, recently scoring nine goals in their last three matches, and they should be able to create plenty of chances against a Luton Town defense that has conceded the most big scoring chances in the Premier League.
I have 3.65 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over at -114.
Pick:Over 3(-114 via bet365)
