Premier League Odds, Predictions, Picks | Best Bets for Arsenal vs Crystal Palace, Brentford vs Nottingham Forest

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Dabbundo: Crystal Palace travel across London on short rest after Roy Hodgson’s side was dumped out of the FA Cup in a replay loss to Everton on Wednesday. The Eagles will again be without Michael Olise due to injury and Jordan Ayew due to the Africa Cup of Nations. Their attack without Olise and Ayew means that almost all of the attacking creativity comes down to the feet of Eberechi Eze. He’s enjoyed an excellent season himself, but now facing the league’s best defense, the Gunners shouldn’t have too much trouble containing Palace on the break.

In the first meeting between these two clubs at Selhurt Park in August, Palace created just 0.3 xG in the first 65 minutes prior to an Arsenal red card. They defended well in wide areas though, and likely wide starter Jeffrey Schlupp has excellent defensive metrics. He’ll be tasked with helping defend Bukayo Saka, who Arsenal are running more and more of their attack through this season.

The Gunners still rank just ninth in xG per 90, and they’re below average in goals created from open play. This is the kind of match where Arsenal will probably get a lead and then look to kill off the match from there in textbook Mikel Arteta fashion. Their control oriented style has made it difficult for them to get margin against most inferior foes, and this match is likely to be no different.

My projections have this total lined right on 2.5 goals, and thus I’d bet the +120 on the under as a small projection edge. Palace defends crosses well, and Arsenal’s crossing success rate is considerably worse this year compared to last.

Pick: Under 2.5 (+120 via bet365) 

Cunningham: The run that Brentford are currently on is a painful one to watch because they do not deserve what is happening to them.

Saturday will be the long awaited return of Ivan Toney and he will be about as important of a January addition as we’ve seen in the Premier League over the last few years. Brentford are desperate to get their attackers healthy. They had signed Toney’s replacement Kevin Shade a long time ago, but he’s been out most of the season, then Bryan Mbeumo got hurt and now Yoane Wissa is at AFCON, which means Brentford have had to roll with a front two of Keane Lewis-Potter and Neal Maupay.

In case you forgot, Ivan Toney before his suspension had bagged 20 goals, was getting about 2.7 shots per 90 minutes and was a 0.73 xG + xA per 90 minute striker. He’s also an aerial threat, which is something Brentford need from their strikers.

Nottingham Forest are going to be severely limited personnel wise for this match, especially in the positions that matter against Brentford. Both of their starting fullbacks, Serge Aurier and Ola Aina, are away at the Africa Cup of Nations along with their best center backs Moussa Niakhate and their best ball stopping midfielder Ibrahim Sangare.

Under Nuno, Nottingham Forest have switched to a 4-2-3-1 instead of the 3-5-2 they played under Steve Cooper and they tried to hold more possession and build out of the back. They have gotten back to back wins against Newcastle and Manchester United, but the reality is both of those teams are desperately struggling with their pressing. Brentford are a really difficult team to play because when they want to they can press high and do a great job of disrupting build up play, but they are really good pressing from their mid-block, ranking sixth in PPDA.

This is a great buy low spot for Brentford. I have them projected at -124, so I like the value on them at +100.

Pick:Brentford ML (+100 via BetMGM)