Premier League Odds, Predictions, Picks | Best Bets for Luton Town vs Brentford, Aston Villa vs Bournemouth

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Cunningham: It’s bad times for Luton Town because of all of their injuries. Going into the Manchester City match they had no healthy available centerbacks. It looks like Mengi might be back and Kabore will return after he couldn’t face his parent club Manchester City, but that is still a massive problem when you are facing a Brentford team that has all of their best attackers available.

Brentford aren’t typically a team that registers a high number of shots because they prioritize creating a high quality chance as opposed to taking whatever chance is available. With that being said, this is a unique scenario. Luton Town with maybe one available center back is going to have to do one of two things. They can play more passively, which they have done from time to time lately, or play super aggressive and get into a back and forth match with Brentford. The problem with both of those scenarios is that if they play a low defensive block, they are one of the worst teams at playing that structure, which is going to lead to a lot of chances for Brentford.

The flip side of things is that Brentford have actually been a pretty bad team and defending in transition and it all boils down to that they’ve had to play the entire season with backup fullbacks, which has led to them getting beat out wide time and time again. That is one of the reasons why they’ve allowed the second-most crosses into their penalty area, which is not ideal when you are playing Luton Town who only creates chances from open play via crosses from out wide.

For Luton Town, without all of their available center backs, I think their best method is play aggressively and get into a back and forth with Brentford because if they sit in a low defensive block, they are just delaying the inevitable. Plus, as sad as it is, one point from this match likely isn’t going to help them in the relegation fight, so they are likely going to have to go for it.

I have 3.8 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 3 (-113 via bet365)

Dabbundo: Aston Villa played an extra 30 minutes and a dramatic penalty shootout on Thursday in Lille and now the Villans have a quick turnaround to prepare for Bournemouth in the Premier League on Sunday. Villa completed their domestic double and shook up the title race with an upset win at Arsenal on Sunday, but the defense still has major holes and is vulnerable against Bournemouth’s much improved attacking unit.

Aston Villa allowed 1.6 xGA in the match at Arsenal, which extended the streak to 12 consecutive league matches of allowing at least 1.5 expected goals. That includes league matches against Luton Town, Sheffield United and a shorthanded West Ham and Wolves.

There are only three clubs in the Premier League — West Ham, Luton Town and Manchester United — conceding more than Aston Villa’s 1.94 xGA per match since the beginning of 2024. Bournemouth have a key advantage on set pieces as the Cherries rank second in the PL in xG created per set piece and now get to face off against a Villa defense that has conceded the most xG per set piece and the third most goals from dead ball situations this year.

Bournemouth are an efficient crossing team and good at exploiting space in behind in transition, two areas where Villa have struggled defensively. I want to continue playing against the Unai Emery defense and Bournemouth team totals are the best way to do so. I’d bet first half to score at anything +100 or better and bet team total over 1.5 for the entire match at +130 or better

Picks:Bournemouth 1st Half Team Total Over 0.5 (+105 via DraftKings), Bournemouth Team Total Over 1.5 (+140 via DraftKings)