Here's everything you need to know about Premier League predictions and odds for Man United vs. Everton, Crystal Palace vs. Luton Town, Brighton vs. Nottingham Forest and Chelsea vs. Newcastle. BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
If you'd like to see our projections for the Premier League matches and a number of other leagues, you can find them here.
Here are our weekend Premier League odds & predictions.
Premier League Odds & Predictions
| Man United Odds | -118 |
| Everton Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
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Cunningham: Have Man United really been a better team than Everton this year. I understand they are miles ahead of them in the table, but if you look at the underlying metrics, you’ll see Everton are actually better because they have more expected points and better expected goal differential than Manchester United.
This match also sets up perfectly for them. Manchester United have identified that they cannot control matches anymore, so Erik Ten Hag has decided to turn his team into a transition based attack, which has over-performed and gotten them into the top half of the table. There is nothing wrong with being a transition based team, but there is a problem when you are completely flawed in transition defense. They just played a match very similar to how this one is going to play out and got out-transitioned by Fulham of all teams. Everton are a much better transition team than Fulham and they can take advantage of a lot of Manchester United’s weaknesses.
In the previous meeting, Manchester United won the match 3-0, but Everton actually ended up winning the expected goals battle 2.4 to 2.2, they outshot Manchester United 24 to 8 and had double the amount of touches in the final third as Manchester United.
I have Everton projected as a road favorite at Old Trafford, so I love the value on them +0.5 at +100.
Pick: Everton +0.5 (+100 via BetRivers)
| Crystal Palace Odds | -138 |
| Luton Town Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
Cunningham: Oliver Glasner’s Frankfurt teams were always known for their compact pressing structure, but so far in two matches as the Palace managers, he’s played more passive that most would have expected.
Against Tottenham he went with a 5-4-1 out of possession and conceded a lot of space out wide to allow Spurs to get in 2 v 1 situations. In fact, two of Spurs' three goals came off of crosses, which is always bad news when you are facing Luton Town. Overall for the season, and it’s still relevant since Crystal Palace’s defensive philosophy hasn’t changed, the Eagles have allowed the second most crosses into their penalty area.
Luton Town are playing uber-aggressively and allowing so many runs off their backline, which is something Crystal Palace can absolutely take advantage of. Over their last five matches, Luton Town have conceded 12.1 expected goals and seven big scoring chances. They are going to try and press Crystal Palace high and cause problems if Palace build out of the back, but if the Eagles try and send the ball long and win second balls, it’s going to create a very back and forth type of match, which is how Luton Town want it.
I have 3.03 goals projected for this match so I like the value on over 2.5 goals at -120.
Pick:Over 2.5 (-120 via Caesars)
| Brighton Odds | -134 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
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Dabbundo: Brighton are in a difficult sandwich spot in the middle of its Europa League knockout tie against Roma. The first leg was a disaster for the Seagulls, who lost 4-0 in Rome. Trying to break down passive and defensive blocks has been a common issue for Roberto De Zerbi’s side and now he’s going to face the most passive out of possession defense in the entire Premier League.
Nottingham Forest have the lowest pressing intensity in the league and combines that by allowing the second-most final third entries in the EPL. It’s a defense designed to concede space and time on the ball in non-dangerous areas, but not concede high quality chances from the center of the penalty area. The problem for the Trees is that their goalkeeper play has been so poor that they’ve badly underperformed their expected goals allowed numbers in defense.
De Zerbi has shown a constant willingness to rotate key players in and out of the attack and the absence of quality attacking play was evident in the loss at Roma. Evan Ferguson hasn’t quite broken out, Kaoru Mitoma, Solly March and Joao Pedro are all out injured and the remaining players are basically a league average attack overall.
Brighton have struggled defensively against teams that are able to disrupt their possession build-up. That’s not really Forest, who will be super passive on the road. This total is a quarter goal too high as a result and I’d bet under 3 at -120 or better.
Pick: Under 3 (-112 via BetRivers)
| Chelsea Odds | -110 |
| Newcastle Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +170 |
Dabbundo: Chelsea have consistently excelled in the Premier League when given space to run in transition. Now facing a Newcastle defense that has been a disaster in transition defense for three months now, the Blues are well positioned to exploit them on Monday.
The Magpies had a reprieve last week because they played Wolves at home in a match where Wolves didn’t have their best central midfielder and two best strikers. The Newcastle and Chelsea defense are both conceding almost two expected goals per 90 in the last two months. Newcastle have allowed the highest xG per shot in the league since December began.
The Blues offense has taken a clear step forward overall, as they’ve produced at least 1.5 expected goals in nine of 10 league matches. They’ve been healthy enough to start mostly the same consistent attack week in and week out. Meanwhile, Newcastle still have major deficiencies defending set pieces (third-worst in xGA per set piece allowed), an area where the Chelsea attack has been consistently good all year.
My projections have this match landing right around 3.5 goals exactly, and I’d bet over 3.5 goals at +110 or better.
Pick:Over 3.5(+125 via BetRivers)
