Premier League Best Bets: 2 Expert Picks for Liverpool vs Everton & Sheffield United vs Man United

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Cunningham: It’s the same old story week after week with Manchester United. They were actually playing really well against Coventry City for the first hour of the match. They were controlling possession, pinning Coventry in their own final third and limiting their transition opportunities. However, because of injuries and exhaustion, once Coventry started to play more aggressively things started to open up for them and they went on scored three goals and create over two expected goals.

In 2024, Manchester United have kept one clean sheet in the Premier League, and they have only held one opponent under one expected goal. They are conceding 2.33 xG per 90 minutes.

The situation isn’t getting better anytime soon, because they are going through a pretty massive injury crisis across their backline. Casemiro was forced to play as an emergency center back alongside Harry Maguire and was responsible for them conceding the first goal on Sunday because he miscommunicated with Dalot.

Sheffield United have been playing more aggressively lately and have been more willing to come out of their low defensive block because they have nothing else to lose. They’ve been creating a decent amount of chances lately, as they’ve created 8.3 expected goals over their last six matches. They also have dealt with a lot of injuries to their attack, but their three best attackers, Ben Brereton, Cameron Archer and Oliver McBurnie, are all available to play together.

I don’t think anything really needs to be said about how bad Sheffield United’s defense has been, so Manchester United should have a pretty easy time creating chances, though they are not going to be able to control this match, so Sheffield will have their chances in transition.

With how bad these two defenses are, I like the value on both teams to score at -140.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-148 via BetRivers)

Dabbundo: Everton scored twice on Sunday against Nottingham Forest, but the Toffees still lacked a real ability to consistently create quality chances from open play. The two goals came on low probability strikes from well outside the penalty area, and Everton finished that match with less than 0.5 xG for the entire match. When you combine their declining attack plus an injury to Beto with Liverpool’s tough road spot, the total is inflated for the Merseyside derby. Liverpool are playing their third away match in six days and the attack struggled mightily to create chances in both matches.

Not only is Darwin Nunez dealing with an injury right now, but Liverpool produced two total shots in the second half at Atalanta despite being down two goals on aggregate. In the ensuing match, Liverpool produced just one expected goal on the road at Fulham. The fatigue from all of the travel and competing across multiple competitions seems to be catching up with Liverpool, which blunts their ability to play these wide open games with tons of chances created.

As a result, I’d bet under 3 at anything -105 or better for Wednesday’s match. Everton’s attack is heavily reliant on set pieces to score goals and Liverpool’s attack is overvalued by the market given the fatigue spot.

Picks:Under 3 (+106 via BetRivers)