Here's everything you need to know about Premier League predictions and odds for Man City vs Everton, Wolves vs Brentford, Fulham vs Bournemouth and Aston Villa vs Man United.
BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
If you'd like to see our projections for the Premier League matches and a number of other leagues, you can find them here.
Here are our weekend Premier League odds & predictions.
Premier League Odds & Predictions
| Man City Odds | -550 |
| Everton Odds | +1200 |
| Draw | +700 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +170 |
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Dabbundo: Man City played arguably their most attacking lineup possible in the road win at Brentford on Monday and if Pep Guardiola is going to continue to push more numbers forward and play a more attack-minded lineup, the market is too high on their defensive quality. Everton are comfortable playing without possession and quickly moving the ball up the pitch, similar to how Brentford managed 18 penalty area touches and 1.2 xG in the 3-1 defeat last match.
City had three different players record at least three shots. Compare this to last season, when City played an extremely conservative style that involved running most of the attack through three or four players, and City have really pushed down on the gas pedal of late. Even Rodri and Josko Gvardiol had five-plus touches in the penalty area in that game, and they are the two most reliable ball stoppers in the team. A lineup with Kevin De Bruyne, Erling Haaland, Phil Foden, Julian Alvarez and Bernardo Silva will be vulnerable defensively by nature.
Everton’s attack is rarely pretty, but it is effective. They’re extremely efficient on set pieces as it resulted in both goals for them in the 2-2 draw at Spurs. The Cityzens' major difference between the last two seasons and this one has been a decline in pressing intensity and that will enable Everton some chances to get at the City goal. As a result, I’d bet Everton to score at -120 or better and sprinkle some first half to score at +230.
Pick: Everton to score (-104 via BetRivers), Everton to score in the first half (+250 via FanDuel)
| Wolves Odds | +110 |
| Brentford Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
Cunningham: This is now the fourth meeting between these two and Brentford have not been outplayed in any of those matches.
The first meeting was rife with calamitous defending at the back from Brentford, which is completely uncharacteristic of them, but in the end they outshot Wolves and held 60% with the xG being basically even, which included a 0.99 xG tap in from Hee Chan Hwang. Then in the first round of the FA Cup, Brenford went up a man and a goal, but conceded late to send it to a replay. The replay at Wolves went into extra time with Cunha scoring a penalty in extra time, but Brentford still won the non-penalty xG battle.
What I found interesting is in the first meeting between these two Brentford set up in their 4-3-3 that they ulitize when they are the favorites and have the intention of being the more possession-dominant team. In both FA Cup meetings they switched to a 3-5-2 and actually conceded a majority of the possession to Wolves, especially in the second meeting. In that second meeting they held Wolves to just 1.2 npxG on 24 non-penalty shots.
Not to mention, Brentford didn't have Ivan Toney for any of those three meetings.
I would have Brentford favored on a neutral field, so this number is far too high for Wolves, so I like the value on the Bees +0.5 at -124.
Pick:Brentford +0.5 (-124 via BetRivers)
| Fulham Odds | +137 |
| Bournemouth Odds | +180 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
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Dabbundo: Goalscoring is way up across the Premier League this season as a result of most clubs playing a more open and expansive style and allowing way more chances as a result. Outside of the top three elite teams — Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool — Bournemouth and Fulham have been the two best defensive sides in the rest of the league since December began.
If you remove penalties and red cards from the sample, Fulham and Bournemouth are both conceding just 1.1 xGA per match in the last 900 minutes of action. Given the schedules faced and sample size, it’s starting to look like more signal than noise. For Bournemouth, the Cherries have stopped trying to slowly matriculate the ball down the field and play through pressure. They’ve gone long far more often, and it has cut down on the high turnovers allowed, improved their transition defense and made them much more solid overall.
For Fulham, they always played an aggressive pressing style that did a solid job of preventing teams from getting into their penalty area at an average rate in the league. The Cottagers conceded too many big scoring chances once in the box and thus were mediocre defensively, but the underlying profile always suggested there was room for Fulham to improve defensively.
These two sides met on Boxing Day at Bournemouth and the line closed at 2.5 with -110 on juice on both sides. If anything, both defenses have only solidified themselves as legitimately solid since then. Now the total is 2.5 with the juice at +112 to the under, and it’s too high of a total.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+112 via BetRivers)
| Aston Villa Odds | +115 |
| Manchester United Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
Cunningham: Just when things are starting to go in the right direction, United lose another player to injury. Lisandro Martinez makes such a difference for Manchester United with their ability to effectively build out of the back against an opponent's press. He was excellent in doing so against Wolves and West Ham and was a big reason why Manchester United had so much success in build up. Without him, now Manchester United are in the same position as they’ve been for a long time.
I highly doubt Villa are going to make the same mistake again that they made against Manchester United when they lost 3-2. Aston Villa were up 2-0 in that match and kept playing an incredibly high line, which allowed Manchester United to continually make runs in behind and eventually complete the comeback. Aston Villa played a low block against Chelsea in the first FA Cup match, which is encouraging that Unai Emery is not too stubborn in his philosophies.
Aston Villa are going to build out of the back and will have Pau Torres available. He’s been massive for them this season because he is their best ball-carrying and passing center back, which allows Aston Villa’s build up to be at its best.
This is also Aston Villa at home where they’ve been almost unbeatable this season, putting up a +10.8 expected goal differential.
I have Aston Villa projected at -123, so I like the value on Aston Villa +120.
Pick:Aston Villa ML(+120 via DraftKings)
