Here's everything you need to know about Premier League predictions and odds for Saturday, Feb. 3rd and Sunday, February 4th — our expert best bets for Newcastle vs. Luton Town, Burnley vs. Fulham, Manchester United vs. West Ham, and Arsenal vs. Liverpool.
BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
If you'd like to see our projections for the Premier League matches and a number of other leagues, you can find them here.
Here are our weekend Premier League odds & predictions.
Premier League Odds & Predictions
| Newcastle Odds | -250 |
| Luton Town Odds | +600 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +110 |
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Cunningham: Newcastle made a big change to their out of possession structure against Aston Villa, which completely caught Unai Emery by surprise and was the main reason why Newcastle delivered Aston Villa their first Premier League loss at Villa Park.
Newcastle decided to go man to man across their back line, which caused Aston Villa all sorts of problems in their build up. While the change worked, it's a very aggressive approach and one that leads to very high scoring matches.
Luton Town are likely going to try and play very direct, so if Newcastle are going to try and deploy this structure and play a high line, they are going to be vulnerable to many long balls over the top. Luton Town basically have two methods of scoring: either via crosses from open play or off of corners. They love to overload the back post against the opposing teams fullback, which has allowed them to have the highest xG per corner in the Premier League. Newcastle are 18th in xG allowed per set piece, so the Hatters will have a big advantage there.
Luton Town went with a really aggressive approach out possession against Brighton and it paid massive dividends. You have two choices against Brighton, either you sit in a passive low block or you aggressively high press them and try to force turnovers. Luton Town opted to give Brighton what they want and press them high, which cause a bunch of problems for Brighton's build up leading to numerous chances.
My guess is they will go with that same approach here against Newcastle because of how they have performed in a passive low block this season. Luton Town are one of the worst teams in the Premier League at defending the middle of the pitch, so it's no surprise that in their last 13 matches they have conceded the most expected goals and big scoring chances in the Premier League.
With both of these defenses being suspect in a match that should be very back and forth with both teams preferring to play in transition, I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 3 (-106 via bet365)
| Burnley Odds | -110 |
| Fulham Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -118 / -106 |
Dabbundo: Burnley and Fulham enter this match in the bottom five in both expected goals created and expected threat created in the Premier League this season. Neither team has a single player inside the top 35 of the league’s Opta’s “Attacking Contribution” metric. The highest rank player for either team is Fulham’s Alex Iwobi, who will miss this match due to AFCON.
Fulham’s attacking issues were on full display in the reverse fixture, when the Cottagers managed 19 total shots for just 1.1 expected goals. Almost none of the shots came from high quality positions and they consistently settled for poor quality shots from distance. This is a battle of contrasting styles, as Fulham want to makes games more frenetic with lots of possessions and pressing, and Burnley have tried to build their team in the style of slow build-up. The Clarets defensive metrics are also quite poor, but Fulham isn’t the team to take advantage of them.
The absence of Iwobi takes away a key piece for Fulham, as the decline in production from striker Raul Jimenez isn’t supplemented well by the midfield runs of Iwobi. They have no other player averaging more than 0.2 xG per 90 when you remove penalties from the sample now that Jimenez could also miss this match with an injury.
Burnley created just 0.4 xG in their win at Fulham in the reverse fixture and without some low quality shots finding the net, the attack will struggle to score here.
Pick:Under 2.5 (-112 via BetRivers)
| Man United Odds | -134 |
| West Ham Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
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Cunningham: Manchester United have had all sorts of issues this season at both ends of the pitch.
Even though they spent a ton of money on their offense in the last two years, Scott McTominay is still their leading goalscorer for the season, which highlights how little they are getting from Marcus Rashford and Rasmus Hojlund up top. This type of matchup is especially bad for them for because when Manchester United have looked their best this season it's mainly when they are playing in transition. When they have gone up against teams that have sat in a low block against them, like West Ham are going to do, they have struggled.
For the season, Manchester United are only averaging 1.31 npxG per 90 minutes, which is 12th in the Premier League. They are doing a terrible job generating high quality chances, as they are 17th in big scoring chances and have only created one in the last seven matches. While West Ham haven't been great in their low block, they have done a good job at limiting big scoring chances, which is what they did to Manchester United in the previous meeting.
When these two met at the London Stadium West Ham won the match 2-0 and held Manchester United to just 1.0 xG on 11 shots despite conceding 65% possession to United.
Manchester United are also having all sorts of issues out of possession. Injuries have played a big part, but the reality is that they don't have a pressing structure that works effectively. Either the fullbacks won't come up and support or the midfield doesn't have enough ball winning, which means teams have been able to play right through them.
West Ham are likely going to play very direct and with Bowen and Kudus fully healthy, they are going to be able to cause a lot of problems on the counter just like the previous meeting.
I only have Manchester United projected at -105, so I think there is a little value on West Ham +0.5 at +110.
Pick: West Ham +0.5 (+110 via Caesars)
| Arsenal Odds | +120 |
| Liverpool Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +115 |
Dabbundo: This is the third meeting in all competitions between these two clubs, including both league and FA Cup in early January. Liverpool managed to win at Arsenal with rotated teams in the FA Cup and the two played out a stalemate 1-1 draw at Anfield in December. Liverpool were able to control and dictate the flow and pace of the game when at home by disrupting Arsenal’s build-up. The Gunners center backs were stellar in the match though, and Liverpool finished the match at home with less than one expected goal.
Arsenal fell into the trap of playing a more open and transitional match at Anfield, which favors the Reds. As the venue shifts to North London at The Emirates, I’d expect Arsenal to better keep control of the match and prevent Liverpool opportunities on the break. The Gunners have conceded just eight expected goals in total in 11 total matches at home this season. When they’ve faced fellow top sides, the Gunners have held Brighton, Aston Villa, Newcastle and Manchester City under one expected goal in every match.
Liverpool will still be without Mo Salah and while that didn’t matter in the dominant home win against Chelsea or road win at Bournemouth, his absence will matter here. The weak link in the Arsenal defense is left back Oleksandr Zinchenko, who Salah rinsed for Liverpool’s only goal in the first meeting.
Darwin Nunez and Diogo Jota enter this match in excellent form, but Liverpool’s press and attacking production isn’t nearly as dynamic away from home this season. The total should be right around 2.5, and I’d bet under 2.5 at +120 or better in this key Premier League clash
Pick:Under 2.5 (+125 via FanDuel)
