After a crazy weekend which featured a late equalizer from Manchester City against Arsenal the Premier League is back with another great slate. This weekend has two headliners kicking off the weekend on Saturday at St. James Park with Newcastle taking on Manchester City and Sunday at Old Trafford with Manchester United taking on Tottenham.
Read on for my Saturday Premier League picks, featuring Arsenal vs. Leicester City, Brentford vs. West Ham, and Nottingham Forest vs. Fulham
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Saturday Premier League Picks, Premier League Predictions
BJ Cunningham's Premier League Picks
Arsenal have had the misfortune of playing twice now this season down a man for the second half. However, when they are playing 11 v 11, they have only conceded one goal and are only allowing 0.85 xG per 90 minutes. What the Gunners have shown is that when they get a lead, they are impossible to break down. They can play a number of different variations, but it’s clear that they are not going to allow you to play through the middle and are going to defend crosses at an elite level. So, how are Leicester scoring in this match?
The Foxes did nothing against a similar defensive structure that Everton was playing, creating only 0.7 expected goals with their biggest chance coming off a set piece. Through five matches, Leicester have only been able to create four expected goals, as they do not have Premier League caliber attackers that can consistently threaten good defensive teams. In fact, in the League Cup on Tuesday they failed to score, they were only able to put up nine shots and they created 0.86 expected goals against League 2 side Walsall.
The one thing about Leicester is they are a solid team defending in Steve Cooper’s 5-3-2. They do a great job at staying compact and reducing the space in between the lines. From non-set piece situations, Leicester have only allowed 4.9 expected goals in five matches. It’s also pretty clear that without Ødegaard is lacking the ability to break down low blocks, especially teams that will play five at the back.
I only have 2.7 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under.
Pick: Under 3 (+105 via bet365)
Things are changing at Brentford, as Thomas Frank is trying to evolve his side into a team that has the ability to control matches, build out of the back and press teams high to try to disrupt the opponents build up play. As you saw against really good pressing teams like Manchester City and Tottenham, it didn’t go too well, but this is about as perfect of a matchup as it gets because West Ham cannot defend anybody.
Even though Brentford are trying to establish themselves as a build up team, most of their chances have come on transition breaks or runs off the back line. Nobody in the Premier League has allowed more fast break shots than West Ham and it isn’t particularly close. The reason for that is their defensive set up under Lopetegui is completely flawed. They are trying to play a mid to high block with a high defensive line, but they do not have the personnel to play that structure. They are trying to be Everton without any of the physicality.
They allow way too much space in the middle of the pitch, so it’s incredibly easy to overload them, and once you beat the first line or pressure to run at their backline because they have no ball stopping in the middle either. West Ham have the worst ground duel win rate in the Premier League, while Brentford have the third-best, so the Bees have a massive edge in terms of physicality.
I have Brentford projected at a -101 favorite, so I like the value on the Bees at +135.
Pick: Brentford ML (+120 via bet365)
I think the price here on Nottingham Forest has gone a little too far.
They will be a bit shorthanded coming into this match with their best creator Morgan Gibbs-White suspended for picking up a yellow card against Brighton, but they have guys behind him that can make sure there isnt a big drop off. They spent big money on Elliott Anderson this summer from Newcastle.
So far this season, Nottingham Forest are allowing the lowest xG per shot, the lowest percentage of shots inside the penalty area and have allowed the third-lowest amount of expected goals behind only Liverpool and Manchester City. The main reason for that is they one of the most physical teams sitting in their mid block and are really difficult to play through. They have the second-highest ground duel win rate in the Premier League, as they don’t let anyone play through the middle.
Despite beating Newcastle last weekend, Fulham still have problems defending teams that can attack them through the middle of the pitch because they have no good ball stopping midfielders.
There is also pretty drastic difference in Fulham when they are away from Craven Cottage, as they had a -12.1 xGD last season and already this season have only created a total of 1.4 expected goals in their two away matches.
