After a crazy weekend which featured a late winner for Arsenal, a beatdown at Old Trafford by Tottenham and Cole Palmer scoring four first half goals, the Premier League is back with another great slate. There aren't too many big matches this weekend, but that doesn't mean there aren't plenty of betting opportunities.
Read on for my Premier League picks, featuring Arsenal vs. Southampton, Leicester City vs. Bournemouth and Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest
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Saturday Premier League Picks, Premier League Predictions
BJ Cunningham's Premier League Picks
This is one of the biggest advantages a team is going to have all season long. Arsenal are now been dubbed "Set Piece FC" because that is how they are scoring most of their goals. Last season, Arsenal led the Premier League with 20 goals off of set plays while also having the highest xG per set pieces. This season has been no different, as the Gunners have already scored three goals off of set pieces and are top five in expected goals off of them.
What they have been doing is something Luton Town did last season in the Premier League, which is overloading the back post to create a numerical advantage. They also are setting picks and trying to get their best aerial threat, Gabriel Magalhães, open to score. He scored against Manchester City in this exact scenario and has scored twice this season.
Southampton have one of the worst set piece defenses the Premier League has ever seen. They have already shipped six goals off of set pieces this season and have allowed close to four expected goals off of them as well. They don't have a lot of great aerial ball winners in the team, so teams have been able to taking advantage of them week after week.
So, if Arsenal are going to score off a set piece, they are likely going to target Gabriel Magalhães. I like the value on him to score at +550.
Pick: Gabriel Anytime Goalscorer (+550 via bet365)
Bournemouth got a big win over Southampton on Monday and the same advantages they had against the Saints apply here against the Foxes. Steve Cooper is still trying to maintain what Leicester were in the Championship by continually having them build out of the back and try to play through the opponent's press. That's not going work against Bournemouth, who are the best pressing team in the Premier League right now. Nobody is forcing their opponents to turn the ball over in dangerous areas more than the Cherries right now.
Even if Bournemouth aren't able to get those high turnovers and forced Leicester to play the ball long, the Foxes' front line of Jamie Vardy and Jordan Ayew is not going to threaten Bournemouth's defense. Through six Premier League matches Leicester have only created 4.3 expected goals, which is dead last in the Premier League.
Bournemouth's offense has been very impressive this season because of the volume of chances they are creating. The Cherries are averaging 1.66 xG per 90 minutes and have taken the third-most shots so far. They are really good in attack in the wide areas, as they've completed the second-most crosses into the penalty area, which will be a big advantage against Leicester.
I have Bournemouth projected at -121, so I like the value on the Cherries at +115.
Pick: Bournemouth ML (+115)
Chelsea have been firing on all cylinders offensively, but let's take a step back and look at the last two Premier League opponents they faced. They scored three goal against West Ham, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and then scored four goals against Brighton, who play the highest defensive line in Premier League and were able to consistently take advantage of it.
The reason they scored four against Brighton is because at Chelsea's core, they are a much better transition team than they are trying to build out of the back. It's the reason they went on a winning run towards the end of last season and why they've always played well against the top sides. What Chelsea are not good at is breaking down good low blocks.
The problem is if teams don't allow Chelsea to play through the middle, they are forced to try and beat them with crosses and the Blues don't have any good aerial threats. Nottingham Forest are an elite defensive team. They went to Anfield and held Liverpool scoreless because they were so good defending in their own final third. The Trees are allowing the lowest xG per shot this season and have also allowed the third-fewest non-penalty expected goals.
They went to Stamford Bridge last season with a similar tactical plan and pulled off the upset, winning 1-0. I only have Chelsea's spread projected at -0.68, so I like the value on Nottingham Forest +1 at +115.
