We are back from the international break with a huge weekend of Premier League action. There is a headliner at Anfield with league leaders Liverpool hosting Chelsea, but I'll be focused elsewhere for my Premier League predictions.
Read on for my Premier League picks, featuring Tottenham vs. West Ham, Everton vs. Ipswich Town and Southampton vs. Leicester.
Make sure to follow all of our Premier League coverage throughout the season here and on Youtube, and make sure to subscribe to the Wondergoal podcast for episodes all season long. Also if you like to see my projections for every Premier League match you can find them here.
Saturday Premier League Picks, Premier League Predictions
BJ Cunningham's Premier League Picks
This match should be end to end football with a lot of chances at both ends of the pitch.
Tottenham are the most aggressive pressing team in the Premier League because they have the lowest PPDA. They will typically press in a man to man fashion while playing a high defensive line that can get them into trouble. The second half against Brighton exposed that because Brighton didn’t drop anyone deep in build up and instead left their front four in 1 v 1 situations against Tottenham’s back line, which is what led to the first goal with Mitoma beating his defender to set up Rutter.
The other thing that was concerning in that game against Brighton was Tottenham’s ability to defend crosses into the box. Two goals and four of their five best chances for the match came off of crosses.
Tottenham's aggression out of possession is more of a positive than a negative, however. It allows them to turn opponents over high and create easy transition opportunities. Tottenham are averaging well over two expected goals per 90 minutes and are turning opponents over in dangerous areas at the fourth-highest rate in the Premier League. If there is one team that is going to be very successful against, it’s West Ham. The Hammers are dead last in opponent PPDA and have made countless mistakes trying to transition from a transition based team under David Moyes to a build up team under Lopetegui.
With that being said, when West Ham are able to get into those transition breaks they are dangerous, especially in wide areas. The Hammers scored three goals as result of crosses from transition breaks against Ipswich and are top 10 in crosses completed into the penalty area.
With Tottenham’s style of play under Ange Postecoglu their matches are always going to be high event. So, I like the value on both teams to score & over 2.5 at -143.
Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-143 via bet365)
Let’s start with Ipswich's underlying numbers. Through seven matches, Ipswich have only created five expected goals and allowed 15.3. Both of those are dead last in the Premier League. They have lost the expected goals battle in six of their seven matches and Everton are about the worst possible matchup for them.
This is one of the few matches where Kieran McKenna’s side will likely control a majority of the possession. They haven’t held over 50% possession in a single Premier League match, which highlights the core problem of his side. He wants his side to build out of the back with a lot of fluid rotations and quick passing to play through an opponent's press. There have been instances where they have been able to get through the first couple of phases of build up, but they have absolutely nothing in the final third. Liam Delap has scored four of their six goals off of only 1.2 expected goals, so his level of production is not going to continue. In addition to that, Ipswich are averaging the fewest box entries and lowest xThreat of anyone through seven matches.
We know what Everton are at this point. They are going to play in their high defensive block, looking to win the ball high up the pitch to create easy transition opportunities. They have been incredibly effective at doing that this season forcing opponents into losing possession in dangerous areas at the third-highest rate in the Premier League. Even though Ipswich are holding less than 40% of the ball, they are turning the ball over in their own end of the pitch at the third-highest rate.
The biggest thing when you are playing Everton is you have to be able to defend crosses and set pieces. Ipswich can’t do either one of those things effectively. West Ham scored three goals as the result of a cross completed in the penalty area in their last match. In addition to that, they are 14th in xG per set piece allowed.
I have Everton projected as a favorite here on the road, so I like the value on them draw no bet at +115.
Pick: Everton – Draw No Bet (+115 via BetRivers)
Southampton are one of those teams where their surface level numbers look a lot worse than their underlying numbers. I am not trying to say they are a good team, they just aren’t the worst team in the Premier League, which is how everyone is viewing them right now.
Russell Martin’s tactics are never going to last in the Premier League. Southampton are never going to be able to control the ball, build out of the back and play through some of the better teams in this league, but they can do it against a team like Leicester. They showed that when they played Ipswich earlier this season. In that match, Southampton were able to create 2.4 expected goals off of just 11 shots and completely tilted the field on Ipswich. In fact, Southampton have the second-best buildup completion percentage in the Premier League right now.
Leicester have not been a good defensive team under Steve Cooper, especially the last two games. Against Arsenal and Bournemouth they have conceded 6.5 expected goals. Funnily enough, Southampton have played the exact same two opponents in their last two games as well and they only conceded 3.1 expected goals.
These are the worst two set piece defenses in the Premier League, but Southampton are second offensively in xG per set piece, which will be a huge advantage against Leicester.
I have Southampton projected as a -109 favorite, so I like the value on them draw no bet.
