It's a slim Premier League slate this weekend, with the matchweek split across two weekends. But it's also a time of year when the conditions are slightly different than they have been for the previous three months.
That provides some unique betting opportunities, even on the small card. Here are my three favorite wagers over Premier League weekend.
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Premier League Predictions
| Chelsea Odds | -167 |
| Fulham Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
Fulham have had a poor away record this season, and at first glance would appear unlikely to pick up anything in their travels to Chelsea to kick off Saturday's action. But they're more likely to find a goal or two than the line would indicate.
The Cottagers have been far better in attack in recent months in games in which Raul Jimenez has started and played the majority of the minutes at center forward. After a transition period, the Mexican striker has learned exactly what Marco Silva wants from his strikers. That not only has resulted in five goals for the former Wolverhampton man, but impressive all-around striker play that helps the rest of Silva's pieces fit into place.
Fulham have scored in seven straight games when he's in the team and plays most of the match — posting 20 goals in total. That latter count is well above xG projections over that stretch. But those are still strong in their own right, with Fulham averaging 1.8 xG created in the six league games in that run.
Meanwhile, Chelsea have conceded multiple goals in four of their 10 home matches so far this season. And while Fulham have only scored two or more twice on their travels, on both occasions it was against similarly marquee-name opponents – Arsenal and Liverpool.
So, I like an aggressive play here based on the assumption that Fulham's attack is better now than at the beginning of the season — even away from Craven Cottage. That might not necessarily mean a victory against a Chelsea team that creates enough chances to outscore teams when it finishes them.
Instead of a moneyline or handicap wager, I'm playing Fulham to score more than 1.5 goals at +240 odds and an implied 29.4% probability.
Pick: Fulham over 1.5 goals (+240 via bet365)
| Newcastle Odds | +400 |
| Manchester City Odds | -163 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -154 / +120 |
For all the stress on Newcastle's injury woes, the more complete story is that the Magpies' struggles have been as much about the congested schedule as the short-handed squad they've fielded during it.
Eddie Howe's men have not had a full week between matches since the November international window, and that grueling run combined with those injuries is what produced a stretch of six defeats in eight games.
Outside of that slide, the Magpies have played like a top four team, both in terms of analytics and actual results. And their squad remains good enough to do if it's fully rested.
The itinerary has eased in the New Year, and following a morale-boosting FA Cup win over derby rivals Sunderland, they'll have a full week to prepare for a City team that will still be without leading goalscorer Erling Haaland.
While Kevin De Bruyne could make his Premier League return, he's still probably not likely to start after going five months out before his return to action last weekend in the FA Cup. And City in general have experienced only middling success against top-half sides this season on the road — playing to a 2-2-1 (W-L-D record) in league play.
My play here is backing the likelihood of Newcastle looking more rested and refreshed than they have in a while, in a match where all the pressure to perform will be on the visitors. Taking the Magpies on a +1 goal handicap wager is one option. My inclination is more aggressive on Howe's men earning a point or more here at +140 odds and an implied 41.7% probability.
Pick: Newcastle +0.5 (+140 via ESPNBet)
| Everton Odds | +180 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +145 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
Everton's home form has been poor this season overall. But after losing their first four league fixtures at Goodison, Dyche's charges have posted a 3-2-1 (W-L-D) record at Goodison Park since in PL matches. Both more recent defeats included penalty decisions awarded to their opponents, and the latter came while missing leading scourer Abdoulaye Doucoure.
The French attacking midfielder has returned to full training this week and appears likely to get back into Dyche's squad for the first time since a 2-0 win at Burnley. Everton also won their appeal on Dominic Calvert-Lewin's red card in their FA Cup draw against Crystal Palace. And while Dwight McNeil's new injury will leave a hole, it also provides another chance for Arnaut Danjuma, who has looked lively in his limited action.
Meanwhile, not only have Villa been far better — both in points earned and in expected goals generated — when playing at Villa Park, but they have particularly struggled in away matches when they've been asked to hold the majority of the ball. Unai Emery's squad has won only one of those five games in league play, drawing two and losing two more. And Everton have held the third-least possession of any EPL team heading into Sunday's clash.
So, I like Toffees' home form to continue to regress to the mean after a dismal start to the season. A draw no bet wager on the Toffees is the play here at +106 odds and an implied 48.5% probability, and I'd probably consider it as low as -105 to -110 territory (though I might look for a different angle on the Toffees first.) If the game finishes tied, your wager pushes.
