The Premier League returns on August 16th for a new season with plenty of hype and drama. Manchester City will be going for their record fifth straight Premier League title, while Arsenal and others will be trying to spoil what looks to be Pep Guardiola's final season in the dugout.
Here I will be analyzing the outright market for the Premier League where there is a team I think has some value.
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Premier League Pick: Arsenal to Win the Premier League (+190 via Caesars)
If we go back to last season, after Arsenal’s title bid fell short on the final day, I think it’s a fair statement to say that Arsenal and Manchester City are equal teams, so why don’t the odds reflect that?
Neither team has done much business in the transfer market to get a leg up on the other and Arsenal may not be done. There are a lot of indicators that Manchester City have gotten progressively worse, especially out of possession. Last season they allowed 0.94 xG per 90 minutes, which I know sounds really good, but when you compare it to the previous season, they were only allowing 0.85 xG per 90 minutes. The main reason for that is because their press has gotten significantly worse. They finished the 2023-24 season ninth in PPDA and 11th in opponent build up completion percentage allowed.
Of course their offense and build up system is always going to be successful against the smaller teams, but as they showed last season, it’s really not that great against elite teams. In the Premier League last season they only won three of their 10 matches against the big six and two of them came against an injury riddled and quite frankly a terrible Manchester United team.
Arsenal are the best out of possession team in the entire world and there is a pretty huge gap between them and the rest of the Premier League. Arsenal only allowed 0.73 xG per 90 minutes and were incredibly effective with their high press that gave every team problems.
There is an argument to be made that Arsenal are only going to get better defensively. They signed Riccardo Calafiori from Bologna who can play left center back or left back and has the ability to invert. They are getting Jurrien Timber back from a season long ACL injury last year, which is even bigger because he can play any position along the back line at an elite level. So, Arsenal essentially have seven center backs that they can interchange and play at multiple positions on their back line.
The question marks surrounding Arsenal are with their offense, but they were just as good as City last season from an underlying data perspective. They averaged 2.00 xG per 90 minutes playing Kai Havertz as a false nine and have two of the best wingers in Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. Martin Ødegaard has also proven himself to be one of the best creative midfielders in the world, so Arsenal’s attack should not drop off one bit.
They are also an elite team on set pieces, which has helped them make up the gap between teams like Liverpool and Manchester City. Arsenal led the Premier League with 20 goals off of set pieces last season and show no signs of slowing down.
There are also rumors swirling right now that Arsenal may be willing to meet Napoli’s asking price for Victor Osimhen, which would immediately close the gap offensively to Liverpool and Manchester City.
Finally, underlying data is the best indicator of future success. Arsenal finished last season with a +1.27 xGD per 90 minutes, while Manchester City was at +1.18.
I have Manchester City and Arsenal projected within 0.3 points of each other so I don’t agree with gap in the title odds being this wide
In addition, Manchester City's hearing regarding their 115 FFP charges that date all the way back to 2009 is set to begin in September with a verdict happening in early 2025. Both Everton and Nottingham Forest received points deductions in the year of the verdict, so the same should apply to Manchester City. Therefore, Arsenal may be running away from the pack if Manchester City get hit with the massive points deduction that they deserve.
I like the value on Arsenal at +190.
