The Premier League title race is as close as it's ever been and after Arsenal's 3-1 win over Liverpool last week we have a true three team race for the title. Manchester City have been sitting as -150 favorites for pretty much the entire first half of the season, but since then they have beginning to drop and now that they are one point ahead of Arsenal and four points behind Liverpool, who have played one more match.
The media narrative right now is Manchester City are going walk right to the title just like they did last season without any resistance because they are the best team in the world. I am here to tell you that is not is it not going to be cake walk for City, and that they might not even be the best team in the Premier League.
Arsenal had a terrible showing against Porto in the Champions League where they only created 0.09 xG from open play and suddenly everyone thinks the sky is falling. I'll say this, it's hard to develop a rhythm when there are 36 fouls and the ball is only in play for 50 minutes of the match.
The Gunners have proven over the course of the season that not only are they an elite offense, but they have rebounded from bad performances time and time again. With a favorable schedule coming up in the next three matches, I believe now is the time to back them to win the title.
Arsenal to Win The Premier League (+470 via FanDuel)
Let’s start with pure underlying numbers. Last season Arsenal over-performed before the stretch run of the season, their best defender William Saliba got hurt and everything fell apart because Arsenal didn’t have any depth across their back line.
This season, Arsenal have hit some rough patches, but they are currently sitting with a +1.29 xGD per 90 minutes, which is pretty clearly the best mark in the Premier League. The reason for that is because they have an elite defense and are the best team in the world out of possession.
Arsenal’s 4-4-2 hybrid pressing structure usually sees them go man to man across the front line with zonal marking across their back line, which has caused all sorts of problems for some of the best build up teams in the world. Gabriel and Saliba are so good at recognizing the situation, stopping the ball and defending in transition that it’s made it incredibly hard for teams to play through them.
If you look at all of Arsenal’s matches against the Big Six, Tottenham are the only team to create over one non-penalty expected goal against them in six matches and by the way, they are also unbeaten.
Arsenal are only allowing 0.66 npxG per 90 minutes, they have only conceded a total of eight big scoring chances in 25 matches, and have not allowed an opponent to create over 1.5 expected goals against them this season.
Now, defense was never really the question mark with Arsenal. Rather, it’s can their offense generate enough chances to keep with Manchester City and Liverpool.
One way they’ve done that is being an elite set piece offense. The Gunners currently lead the league with 16 goals off of set pieces and are top five in expected goals created per set piece.
However, there were still question marks of can Arsenal create enough from open play and not be incredibly reliant on scoring off of set pieces.
To silence the critics, Arsenal have made a pretty big change tactically and it’s made them incredibly difficult for opposing teams to prepare for.
The last few matches they have been playing Trossard as a false nine, but the reality is that the entire Arsenal attacking structure is fluid. Oftentimes Odegaard, Havertz or Trossard will drop deep in build up, which allows Arsenal to have numerical superiority as they move the ball through the first and second phases if teams do not choose to go man to man. If opposing defenses go man to man, Trossard and Odegaard will pull centerbacks or defensive midfielders out of position, which allows space for Martinelli and Saka to make runs at or in behind the opposing back line.
The basic principle of dropping Trossard and Odegaard deep in build up is Arsenal is then playing a 4-2-2-2 in possession, which allows them to overload the center of the pitch and play right through teams having a 3 v 2 superiority in build up all over the pitch.
Arsenal have Newcastle, Sheffield United and Brentford up next so if City or Liverpool slip up at all, the Gunners could be in pole position before they face Manchester City on March 31st.
Is Manchester City really going to walk to the title?
We have to remember that last season after Manchester City lost 1-0 to Tottenham on February 5th, they ripped off 14 straight wins on their way to the title. Do you realize how hard that is to pull off? Just assuming they are going to do it again is completely naive. At that point on February 5th last year, Manchester City were sitting with a +1.18 xGD, which was pretty much similar to Arsenal. They stayed healthy, Arsenal didn’t and they went onto win the title.
This year Manchester City are worse than they were last season, especially out of possession. We’ve seen them get exploited in transition time and time again because their press is not as effective as it was last season. Their PPDA has risen from 11.2 to 12.3 and their opponent build up completion percentage allowed has gone from 78.5% to 80.5%. I know that doesn’t sound like a big jump, but it’s a pretty clear sign that Manchester City’s press effectiveness is declining. Because of that teams have been able to play a lot more long balls up the pitch at a pretty successful rate.
Manchester City are allowing a long ball completion percentage of 52.7%, which is around the Premier League average when their two challengers Arsenal and Liverpool are only allowing around a 45% completion rate on long balls. So, since Manchester City’s high press isn’t as effective, teams have had more time and space to pick out those long passes and complete them at a high percentage.
Pep Guardiola’s side has been running over teams in the bottom half of the table, but they’ve actually been pretty poor against the bigger sides. Against the rest of the Big Six, Manchester City only have one win and it came over Manchester United, who are pretty clearly one of the worst teams among the Big Six.
Manchester City also have by far the hardest schedule to end the season and there is a stretch where they will have to play Liverpool, Brighton, Arsenal and Aston Villa in a row, so if they stumble through that stretch then Arsenal could open up a pretty big gap, especially if they get a result at the Etihad.
Are Liverpool in an injury crisis?
Liverpool have by far the easiest schedule of the three teams battling for the title and they've been incredibly impressive this season with their only two Premier League losses coming to Tottenham and Arsenal on the road.
With that being said, they are going to have to deal with a fixture pile up and limited squad for an extended period of time. Their starting goalkeeper Alisson is now ruled out until the end of March, Trent Alexander-Arnold is out until mid-March, Diogo Jota is out until the middle of April and Darwin Nunez, Mo Salah and Dominik Szoboszlai have all been battling injuries. That is a lot to overcome when you have to worry about the Premier League, FA Cup and potentially a deep run in the Europa League where they are the favorites to lift the trophy.
Liverpool's offense may be the best in the Premier League from open play, but their defense is nowhere near as good Arsenal or Manchester City. Jurgen Klopp wants chaotic back and forth matches, which means a lot of times Liverpool are going to lack control and it leaves them very open to getting picked off.
Their defense has run incredibly well all season allowing 24 goals off of 32.1 expected, and now that one of the best keepers in the world is no longer between the posts, some of that negative regression is going to hit Liverpool over this stretch run of the season.
