Manchester City (-270) kept on rolling Tuesday with a 2-1 victory at Watford, while West Ham (-143), Bournemouth (-133) and Brighton (+217) all picked up decisive home wins.
The main fixture on Wednesday afternoon is Manchester United hosting Arsenal at Old Trafford, but there are five others on the slate offering opportunities.
I've analyzed the betting market for each match and provided three value plays (16-32-1 season record, -4.52 units).
(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)
Manchester United vs. Arsenal (3 p.m. ET on NBC Sports)
It's been a struggle throughout the season for Jose Mourinho's Manchester United and a win against Arsenal could turn things around. Early indications from bettors don't find that to be likely, though.
After opening at +120/+125, United have drifted to +145 while action has come in on the Gunners to win or draw. Arsenal have gone 19 straight games without a loss in all competitions, and extending the streak at Old Trafford would be another significant achievement.
This match will easily attract the most wagers on Wednesday, and there's also been notable attention to the over/under. Sportsbooks have either moved it from 2.75 to 3, or increased the juice on 3 goals.
Wolves vs. Chelsea (2:45 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
Chelsea are shaping up to be the most lopsided bet of the day with more than 80% of tickets, but odds have barely budged off -120/-125.
Wolves are being offered at nearly 4-1 odds to win at home, but just 7% of bettors are taking a bid at the upset. Hardly anyone is taking the draw (+270), either.
It'll be tough to break Chelsea down although Wolves have put in solid performances against the top clubs this season. They could get at least a point from this match in front of their home fans.
Another angle to consider is the over (2.5) based on historical data in Bet Labs, focusing on big home underdogs.
Road teams have had no problem scoring in this spot and Chelsea have put up 30 goals through 14 matches thus far.
Fulham vs. Leicester City (2:45 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
Leicester City have received the vast majority of bets (68%) but odds have lengthened from +132 to +152. All the moneyline movement has been toward Fulham (+195) and the draw (+245), while over/under bettors have hit the under (2.5).
The Foxes are the second-most popular bet of the day and looking to feast on a Fulham club at the very bottom of the league table.
However, they could be a bit shorthanded with injuries to key players like Jamie Vardy and Harry Maguire. If they have to replace a slew of players in the starting lineup, it's possible that Fulham could get a win or draw — I'm just not confident enough at those odds.
Burnley vs. Liverpool (2:45 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
Burnley haven't shown much sign of life in the last couple of months, and even at home as +1000 underdogs, I don't see any value in an upset.
Liverpool (-345) will be a popular play among parlay bettors while straight wagers have actually taken a shot on Burnley. I'd feel great including the Liverpool moneyline in any parlay as they should win comfortably.
Everton vs. Newcastle (2:45 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
After a heartbreaking loss at Liverpool in the dying seconds on Sunday, Everton will look to shake things off against a Newcastle club that was trounced by West Ham over the weekend.
Public bettors are throwing some money on Newcastle as big underdogs (+630), but sharp action on Everton has shifted the line from -165 to -185. The home side is the only bet I'd be considering here, and could be a good partner with Liverpool in a parlay.
Tottenham vs. Southampton (3 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
Spurs are big -270 favorites to win at home and facing a Southampton club that just fired manager Mark Hughes, replacing him with Ralph Hasenhuettl.
Historically, EPL teams tend to perform well on the goal-line in the match after sacking a manager, but that trend has softened over the last year.
Tottenham will want to get back on track after a bitter loss at Arsenal over the weekend and the majority of bettors have backed them to win. I certainly lean toward the home team but not confident enough at -270 to bet them in any way.
Value Plays
- Wolves-Chelsea Over 2.5 (-105)
- Arsenal (+200) at Man Utd
- Everton/Liverpool parlay (+100)
