The marquee match in Premier League Week 10 isn't until Monday afternoon (Tottenham vs. Manchester City at 4 p.m. ET), but there are still nine games on the board for Saturday and Sunday.
2018-19 Season Trends
Draws continue to crush bettors and are down nearly 25 units on the season. Home teams and road teams are also both in the red, but the season is barely 25% over, so be patient.
Watford (+10.23 units) and Bournemouth (+5.10 units) have been the most profitable clubs this season. Newcastle and Huddersfield are the last winless teams and have combined to lose bettors 18 units on the moneyline.
There still hasn't been a big upset this season as teams closing +500 or higher on the moneyline are winless in 43 matches.
Now let's turn to Week 10's action with the biggest line movement, lopsided action and three value plays (8-21-1 season record, -7.53 units).
Biggest Line Moves
- Everton have seen their odds shift the most this week, moving from +450 to +390 at Manchester United. Apparently the midweek Champions League loss from United isn't inspiring much confidence in bettors.
- Arsenal and Man City are popular public wagers, but both are seeing early sharp movement as well.
Most Lopsided Betting %
- Watford are easily the most lopsided bet of Week 10 as they're receiving 90% of tickets against lowly Huddersfield.
- The public is also high on Arsenal and Man City, joining sharp bettors on the road sides.
(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)
Wolves at Brighton (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Gold)
- Wolves Odds: +150
- Brighton Odds: +225
- Draw Odds: +221
- Over/Under: 2 (o-115)
Both clubs have issues scoring but have been solid defensively. With an over/under of just two goals in this match, oddsmakers are expecting another low-scoring, tight affair.
The system has been poor this season, but historically draws have earned a near 40% ROI when totals close at 2 goals.You can find all historical data and betting systems with our Bet Labs software.
The majority of action is on the under, and we've also seen the juice shift toward the under. This is a great sign for bettors who are expecting a 0-0 or 1-1 final.
The Bet: Draw +221
Newcastle at Southampton (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Gold)
- Newcastle Odds: +290
- Southampton Odds: +110
- Draw Odds: +235
- Over/Under: 2 (o-135)
I have zero confidence in either of these clubs and wouldn't be surprised to see a scoreless draw.
Both clubs have scored the same number of goals (six) and conceded the same (14), but Southampton are four points ahead in the standings. Newcastle need to start winning games to get out of the relegation zone and they'll take any points they can get right now.
This is another match where the total is listed at a low two goals, and action has come in on the under. Public bettors are on Southampton to win, but the majority of dollars wagered is on the draw. I'll be rolling with the sharp money in this one.
The Bet: Draw +235
West Ham at Leicester City (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
- West Ham Odds: +260
- Leicester Odds: +120
- Draw Odds: +235
- Over/Under: 2.5 (u-115)
Leicester City are one of three clubs yet to draw in the EPL this season (along with Arsenal and Tottenham) and West Ham have drawn just once in nine matches.
A tight, cagey affair is expected Saturday. The betting market has seen some smart action come in on the draw, moving the odds from +250 to +235.
The Bet: Draw +235
Value Plays
- Wolves-Brighton Draw (+221)
- Newcastle-Southampton Draw (+235)
- West Ham-Leicester City Draw (+235)
