The Premier League Week 12 betting market has been very active all week and there's value all over the board for Saturday and Sunday.
First let's take a quick look at how this season has unfolded from a betting perspective.
2018-19 Season Trends
There was only one draw in Week 11 but we were fortunate enough to be on it.
Watford dropped a 1-0 match at Newcastle last weekend but they're still the most profitable team on the moneyline this year at +9.95 units. Bournemouth (+5.60), Brighton (+4.97) and Tottenham (+4.28) are next on the list.
Huddersfield and Newcastle both picked up their first victories of the season in Week 11, leaving Fulham at the very bottom of the league table based on goal differential.
There stillhasn't been a big upset as teams closing +500 or higher on the moneyline are winless in 52 matches. Favorites have won 69 matches for +9.55 units.
What will be in store for Week 12? I've broken down the betting market for every match and picked out three value plays (11-24-1 season record, -3.05 units).
Saturday (6 matches)
Premier League action starts bright and early in the U.S. on Saturday with Cardiff taking on Brighton at 7:30 a.m. ET on NBCSports. Brighton had reeled off three straight 1-0 wins before a 3-1 loss at Everton last weekend, and they're +217 underdogs on the road at Cardiff.
Public bettors have been savvy by taking the draw (+215), and that's always a good idea with a low total of 2 goals. Sharp money has also come in on the under to the tune of more than 70% of tickets and money.
The batch of matches at 10 a.m. ET isn't very interesting, but bettors haven't shied away.
Watford (+210 at Southampton), Bournemouth (+155 at Newcastle) and West Ham (+135 at Huddersfield) are all trendy picks to win on the road against weak opponents, but that could be a dangerous strategy. Odds have shifted toward all three, but I would seriously consider fading the public in each game.
Saturday's slate wraps up at 12:30 p.m. ET on NBC with Crystal Palace hosting Tottenham, a match that should be deemed winnable by the home side.
The Eagles nearly knocked off Arsenal in their most recent home match and were probably unfortunate not to take all three points. Spurs could be ripe for the picking, especially with some key injuries to deal with, and I like the outright value at +355.
Sunday (4 matches)
Goals are expected Sunday with the O/U listed at 3 or higher in each match, but all eyes will be on the Manchester Derby (11:30 a.m. ET on NBCSports).
Manchester City opened as heavy -230 favorites to beat Manchester United and have increased to -265. Clearly some sharp money has come in on the favorites, but public bettors are taking a chance on the big underdogs, especially after seeing them shock Juventus, 2-1, in the Champions League this week.
I'm not as optimistic about United's chances whatsoever.
If these clubs play the way they've been playing over the last couple weeks, this will be a multi-goal victory by Manchester City. The recent results by United have been a facade and not indicative of the way they've actually performed, so I'll gladly fade the trendy road underdogs and take City on the goal line.
The big clubs chasing Manchester City are all in action Sunday as significant favorites: Arsenal (-150 vs. Wolves), Liverpool (-900 vs. Fulham) and Chelsea (-235 vs. Everton).
All three are getting a ton of public support, but I'd be most worried about Arsenal since their odds have dipped from -175 to -150 since opening.
Most Lopsided Betting %
- Arsenal are the most popular bet of the weekend by far, followed by Tottenham and West Ham. However, odds have actually moved away from both Arsenal and Tottenham.
(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)
Biggest Line Moves
- The three biggest line moves of the weekend have been on road underdogs (Bournemouth, Watford and Wolves).
Value Plays
- Cardiff-Brighton Draw (+216)
- Crystal Palace (+355) vs. Tottenham
- Manchester City -1.5 (+100) vs. Manchester United
