Congratulations to everyone who made it through another International Break! The Premier League returns Saturday morning with a ten-match slate and there's plenty of betting value across the board.
First here's a look at the season trends before getting into each match.
2018-19 Season Trends
- Teams closing +500 or higher on the moneyline are winless in 57 matches.
- Favorites have won 73 matches for +6.31 units.
- Watford (+8.95 units) are the most profitable club this season, followed by Tottenham (+4.98 u) and Bournemouth (+4.60 u).
For Week 13, I've broken down the betting market and picked out five value plays (12-26-1 season record, -4.05 units).
(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)
Saturday (7 matches)
There's no early match on Saturday so fans and bettors can both sleep in until the 10 a.m. ET kickoffs.
One game that has seen quite a bit of line movement is Brighton-Leicester City. After opening at +210, hosts Brighton are down to +190 while Leicester City have moved from +150 to +175. The odds of a draw have remained largely unchanged at +225, and just 10% of bettors think it ends without a winner. With the total still sitting at 2 goals and the draw being ignored, I like the contrarian value on a stalemate.
I think Crystal Palace (+770) has a decent shot of upsetting Manchester United and earning the first surprise of the season. The public is hammering the home side but United's odds have actually come down from -260 to -240. Wilfried Zaha will also be back for Palace which is absolutely crucial for their attack and overall success — they've lost 13 consecutive matches in his absence. At the current line, it's worth a shot on Crystal Palace pulling it off.
In the other 10 a.m. starts, Everton (-233) and Manchester City (-400) have garnered strong support as big favorites, while Fulham-Southampton and Watford-Liverpool should be more competitive fixtures.
Fulham have been incredibly disappointing this season and were the first team to part ways with their manager, Slaviša Jokanović. They're at the bottom of the league table with just five points and desperately need results, especially at home.
Their odds against Southampton have shifted from +180 to +168 and clubs generally respond well in their first match under a new manager, so I'll be following the sharp money here.
Saturday's marquee matchup takes place at 12:30 p.m. ET between top-four sides Tottenham and Chelsea. Despite having home-field advantage, Spurs are receiving just 21% of the moneyline wagers and their odds have drifted from +168 to +188. Nearly 60% of bettors are backing Chelsea (+160) to get the road victory.
Tottenham have not drawn an EPL game yet this season (the only club with fewer than two), but I think this weekend marks a great contrarian opportunity to back the draw.
Sunday (2 matches)
Arsenal (+100) are once again getting the vast majority of support with more than 70% of moneyline tickets at Bournemouth. The Gunners are unbeaten in fifteen consecutive matches in all competitions but the Cherries are nipping at their heels in the EPL table and are the third-most profitable club this season (+4.06 units). I would not feel comfortable backing Arsenal on the road here.
In Sunday's other match, Wolves (-195) are big home favorites over Huddersfield. The road side has struggled all season long, scoring just six goals through twelve matches, and Wolves have been stingy defensively. The total sits at just 2 goals so we could be in store for another 1-0 Wolves victory.
Monday (1 match)
Burnley-Newcastle won't be the most thrilling to watch, but it'll still be nice to have a Monday afternoon game to look forward to.
Burnley are getting more than 70% of early bets to win at home against Newcastle, who have won two straight league matches and are starting to build confidence. This is yet another match with a low total of 2 goals, and just 11% of bettors are taking the draw, which is what I'm taking.
Most Lopsided Betting %'s
- Arsenal are the most popular bet of the weekend once again, receiving >80% of bets on the road vs. Bournemouth.
- Manchester United are unsurprisingly getting a lot of support as big favorites, and the public also likes Burnley to beat Newcastle on Monday afternoon.
Value Plays
- Brighton-Leicester City Draw (+225)
- Crystal Palace (+770) at Manchester United
- Fulham (+168) vs. Southampton
- Tottenham-Chelsea Draw (+248)
- Burnley-Newcastle Draw (+220)
