We've officially entered the sweet spot in the Premier League season with 80 matches from now until January 3, 2019.
It's a hectic schedule with other tournaments mixed in like the Champions League, and bettors will have to be particularly aware of lineup changes and injuries.
Let's take a quick look at some season trends before breaking down this weekend's action.
2018-19 Season Trends
- Huddersfield's 2-0 win over Wolves as +650 underdogs last weekend was the first upset by a team listed above +500 in 63 matches this season.
- Favorites have gone 79-51 for +8.21 units.
- Watford (+7.95 units) and Tottenham (+7.13) have been the most profitable clubs on the moneyline through 13 weeks.
Favorites have ruled thus far but Week 14 could be shaping up for some upsets. I've looked at the betting market for every match and picked out three value plays (14-29-1 season record, -3.12 units).
(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)
Saturday (6 matches)
For the second straight week there's no early kickoff on Saturday morning, but this will be the last time that happens for a while.
In the 10 a.m. ET time slot, three crucial matchups involve teams in the lower half of the table: Crystal Palace-Burnley, Huddersfield-Brighton and Newcastle-West Ham.
Every club should be a little more nervous about their status following Cardiff's 2-1 comeback win over Wolves Friday night.
Crystal Palace opened as heavy home favorites at -155 odds, a shock considering they've won zero matches at Selhurst Park this season. Even though nearly half the bets has come in on Burnley (+580), the moneyline has shifted toward Crystal Palace (now -180).
Huddersfield have turned things around lately, earning two wins and a draw in their last three matches. Sharp bettors like them again on Saturday and odds have come down to +145 from +158. Despite just 28% of bets, nearly 60% of the money wagered has come in on Huddersfield.
In Newcastle-West Ham, line movement has been minimal though public bettors have leaned toward Newcastle (+165) to get the win. They've won three consecutive games and are unbeaten in their last four, and will be disappointed with anything but another three points vs. West Ham.
The match of the day looks to be Leicester City hosting Watford, and the betting market has felt steady line movement up and down. The draw (+234) has received considerable attention which has also coincided with a shift toward the Under (2.5).
In the late "marquee" match, Manchester United travels to Southampton as the most popular bet of the entire weekend. Sportsbooks simply don't care how much public action they're getting on Manchester Utd and their odds have worsened from -115 to +100. I expect bettors to continue pounding them up until kickoff, but I'd stay far away.
Sunday (3 matches)
It's Derby Day on Sunday with three scintillating matchups and intriguing betting patterns for the West London Derby, North London Derby and Merseyside Derby.
Chelsea vs. Fulham (7 a.m. ET)
Despite the lofty odds, public bettors aren't shying away from Chelsea on the moneyline (-530) or goal-line (-2). There's also a good chance they'll be involved in a ton of parlays, yet sportsbooks keep moving the line toward Fulham (+1450) and the draw (+675).
Chelsea just lost for the first time last week and were easily outplayed, while Fulham finally picked up a much-needed win, albeit it was against Southampton. I don't think this is the worst spot to take a +1450 underdog pulling off the upset.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham (9:05 a.m. ET)
Sportsbooks are getting some great three-way action in the North London Derby which pits Arsenal and Tottenham with near identical moneyline odds.
The line initially fell on Arsenal but has gradually pointed toward Tottenham the entire week. I'll be sitting this one out but hoping the Gunners can stay unbeaten for the 19th straight game.
Liverpool vs. Everton (11:15 a.m. ET)
The Merseyside Derby will wrap up Week 14 on Sunday morning and there's potential for another big upset.
Many bettors agree and are taking a shot on the Everton moneyline (+760). Generally I like to fade the trendy underdog, especially on the road, but that doesn't necessarily mean every single time.
Everton will benefit from having the week off while Liverpool lost to PSG, 2-1, in Wednesday's Champions League action. They've gone a bit under the radar with only one loss in the last seven league matches, while conceding just once in the last three.
At +400 or +500 odds I may not be considering Everton, but +760 is well worth it. It wouldn't be surprising to see the line come down over the next couple days.
Value Plays
- Southampton +0.5 (-110) vs. Man Utd
- Fulham (+1450) at Chelsea
- Everton (+760) at Liverpool
