Manchester City will face one of their toughest tests of the entire season with a trip to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea on Saturday (12:30 p.m. ET on NBC).
The Citizens are still undefeated in the Premier League this season and have drawn just twice. However, they're just two points ahead of second-place Liverpool breathing down their necks.
2018-19 Season Trends
- EPL bettors were starved for upsets most of the season but there were two big shocks in the past two weeks: Huddersfield beat Wolves as +650 underdogs and Wolves returned to the favor against Chelsea with a comeback victory as +518 underdogs.
- Even with those wins, dogs closing +500 or higher have gone 2-72 this season for -60.31 units.
- Favorites have fallen off a bit lately but have still gone 89-61 for +3.43 units.
- Brighton (+8.02 units) have regained the top spot as most profitable club on the moneyline, followed by Tottenham (+6.47 u) and Watford (+5.95 u).
Will the Premier League see a big upset for the third consecutive weekend?
Below I've analyzed the betting market for every match and provided three value plays (17-34-1 season record, -5.57 units).
(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)
Saturday (8 Matches)
This weekend starts out in Bournemouth where the hosts will try to take out a quality Liverpool side at 7:30 a.m. ET (NBC Sports). The Reds were fortunate to beat Everton over the weekend on this ridiculous goal, but responded nicely with a 3-1 comeback victory at Burnley.
Oddsmakers and bettors don't expect Liverpool to slip up as they've moved from -140 to -180 since opening.
Key players like Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino were able to rest a bit in midweek action, and the road side has accounted for more than 75% of bets. Add in all the parlays that they'll be included in, and Liverpool are shaping up to be a liability.
In the 10 a.m. ET time slot, the six worst clubs will all be in action, most notably Cardiff City-Southampton in a battle of 16th vs. 17th.
Public betting has been spread out on Cardiff, Southampton and the draw, but the only line shift has been toward Southampton. It's hard to decipher how either of these teams will play on Saturday, so I'm passing completely.
In North London, Arsenal will look at extend their unbeaten streak to 21 matches against Huddersfield (10 a.m. on CNBC). The Gunners are heavy -370 favorites and anything but a home win would be a shock.
In West London, West Ham are aiming to win their third match in a row against a highly unpredictable Crystal Palace squad. I'm still a believer in Palace, but at some point they need to put together a string of positive results. West Ham are slight +125 favorites to win while Crystal Palace are being offered at +245.
Similar to Cardiff-Southampton, oddsmakers have attracted spread out action on all three moneylines, and I don't see much value anywhere.
One match I do have my eye on is Manchester United-Fulham (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports). Sportsbooks continue to be high on Manchester United, listing them at -270 odds to win, but I wouldn't be touching that number at all. On the other side, Fulham are listed at +900 to pull off the upset and I think that's enticing enough to play.
Wrapping up the early slate will be Burnley-Brighton (NBC Sports Gold), another case of teams going in opposite directions. Burnley haven't won an EPL match since September 30th while Brighton haven't lost since November 10th.
More than 75% of wagers has come in on Brighton, but I still think they're massively over-performing in terms of results. They're due for a let-up, and with a low total of just 2 goals, I love the draw (+215) here.
Now let's get into the match of the weekend: Chelsea vs. Manchester City (12:30 p.m. ET on NBC Sports) at Stamford Bridge.
Manchester City are listed as -105 favorites, their second-longest odds of the season and sixth-longest since the start of last season. Public bettors have loved seeing that, and more than 65% of wagers has been placed on the Citizens.
Despite Chelsea coming off a loss in their last outing, I think there's a ton of value on the home side to win/draw and sharp money agrees. Chelsea have dropped from +315 to +300, while the draw has moved from +306 to +282. At +0.5 goals (-105), I'm betting on the Chelsea goal line to keep things close.
Saturday also features a rare 2:45 p.m. ET start and it's a highly-anticipated game between Leicester City and Tottenham. Odds and betting percentages have been nearly identical to Chelsea-Man City, and I'd lean toward the Foxes getting a result at home.
Sunday (1 Match)
There's just one match on the board Sunday as Newcastle host Wolves (11 a.m. ET on NBC Sports), and both clubs are riding a high from midweek action. Newcastle earned a solid draw, 1-1, at Everton while Wolves managed to come back to beat Chelsea, 2-1.
Wolves are actually the slight "favorites" in this matchup, listed at +175 on the road and attracting all the early action. Even when betting picks up over the weekend, I'd suspect that Wolves will be a popular ticket.
Monday (1 Match)
The final match of Week 16 will be on Monday afternoon and it's actually an intriguing encounter between Everton and Watford (3 p.m. ET on NBC Sports).
Watford have been incredibly disappointing in recent weeks, only earning a single point in their last five matches. Somehow Everton are probably even more frustrated, letting a point slip away at Liverpool and two at home against Newcastle.
Surprisingly, early bettors are taking a shot on Watford (+400), but Everton have looked the much better team in the last month. At -130 or below, I'd certainly be looking at the Everton moneyline.
Value Plays
- Fulham (+900) at Manchester United
- Burnley-Brighton Draw (+215)
- Chelsea +0.5 (-105) vs. Manchester City
