It was already going to be a big weekend in the Premier League with Liverpool battling Manchester United, but it's been amped up after the Reds overtook Manchester City at the top of the league table.
Man City dropped down to second place following their first loss of the season, 2-0, at Chelsea. City are now one point behind Liverpool, but they remain heavy -250 favorites to win the league title with 22 games left.
2018-19 Season Trends
- Home teams won 6 of 10 matches in Week 16 for +4.88 units, including wins by Chelsea (+260 vs. Man City) and Cardiff City (+229 vs. Southampton).
- Underdogs of +500 or higher have won just 2 of 77 matches for -63.32 units.
- Favorites have fallen off a bit lately but have still gone 89-61 for +3.43 units.
- Tottenham are now the most profitable club on the moneyline, winning 12 of 16 matches for +7.46 units.
For Week 17 I've analyzed the betting market for every match and provided four value plays (18-36-1 season record, -6.62 units).
(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)
Saturday (7 Matches)
The early match to kickoff the weekend will be Manchester City hosting Everton at 7:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports. City are coming off their first loss in the EPL this season but are huge -430 favorites to get back to winning ways against The Toffees.
The intriguing betting action in this one has been on the total, with the majority of tickets and nearly 80% of the money on the under (3.5). Usually casual bettors are on the over, especially when it involves a team like Man City, but this time they're on the same side as the sharps.
The featured match at 10 a.m. on NBC Sports will be Spurs hosting Burnley, hardly one to be excited about. As -550 favorites, Tottenham are fully expected to win, and by multiple goals. They should be brimming with confidence in front of their home fans after successfully qualifying for the Champions League Round of 16 at Barcelona midweek.
Again, bettors are bypassing the moneyline and focusing on the total, this time taking over (3.5) goals. Last season Burnley conceded just 39 goals in 38 matches, but have already given up 32 through 16 games this year. Oddsmakers don't see things turning around anytime soon and list Burnley at -190 odds to be relegated.
Fortunately at 10 a.m. ET there are three matches that should all be competitive, at least based on the odds: Wolves-Bournemouth, Huddersfield-Newcastle and Crystal Palace-Leicester City.
Wolves have reeled off two straight wins after a terrible start to the year and nearly 70% of public bettors are backing a third. Despite the heavy support, odds haven't budged. With some smart money on the under (2.5), I'd side with the draw (+250) instead.
In Huddersfield-Newcastle, all the line movement has been toward Newcastle to win, but bets have been spread out on all three results. Despite losing three straight games, Huddersfield could have easily picked up points in all of them, and I think they'll finally get one against Newcastle. With the total sitting at just 2 goals, I'm sticking with the historical system and taking the draw +200.
In the late game at 12:30 p.m. ET (NBC), Fulham take on West Ham in a battle of West London vs. East London. West Ham are aiming for their fourth consecutive win against a struggling Fulham club stuck at the bottom of the Premier League table.
There were high hopes heading into the season but things haven't panned out for The Cottagers, conceding 40 goals through 16 matches (2.5 per game). Fulham were embarrassed by Manchester United, 4-1, last weekend and will have to improve defensively to have any chance of staying in the EPL.
Public and sharp bettors just don't see it happening this week and have battered the over, even causing a shift from 2.5 to 3 at some sportsbooks. Bettors have also leaned toward West Ham to win, and it's hard to go against that considering their recent form.
Sunday (3 Matches)
Chelsea at Brighton (8:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
Bettors may be a bit apprehensive about taking the over (2.5) following Chelsea's shutout vs. Manchester City last weekend, but the Blues did concede two goals at Vidi FC (Hungary) in the Europa League Thursday.
Brighton have also conceded in six straight matches and will be hard-pressed to stop Chelsea from making it seven. The home side could contribute a goal and ultimately I see a 2-1 or 3-1 Chelsea victory.
Manchester United at Liverpool (11 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
Liverpool are riding a high at the top of the EPL table and have also secured a berth into the Champions League Round of 16 after defeating Napoli, 1-0.
Manchester United have also qualified for the knockout stage, but haven't performed well in the Premier League, currently sitting 8 points behind the fifth position.
Public bettors don't care and have been wiling to take Man Utd at enticing odds of +500 to +550. Usually sportsbooks don't mind taking bets on a big underdog, but in a heavily-bet match like this one, they could face some liability if United were to pull off the upset. There's no doubt that United will hold the title of "trendy underdogs" come Sunday afternoon.
As of now, the market doesn't appear to be bothered, and has actually moved the line toward Liverpool (-175 to -185). As a rare contrarian home favorite, they're looking like a solid bet to include in a parlay.
Arsenal at Southampton (8:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
Arsenal are very trendy road favorites but they just continue to get results. They're unbeaten in 22 consecutive matches in all competitions while mixing in young players to the rotation, and they're also getting healthier with the returns of Mesut Ozil and Laurent Koscielny. Depth is a huge key during the busy December calendar of fixtures.
The bad news is that the Gunners have struggled at Southampton in recent years, winning just once in their last six matches at the St. Mary's Stadium (1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses). A new manager and players may change that, but oddsmakers and bettors aren't quite sure.
After opening at -110, Arsenal have actually dropped down to +101 despite receiving >80% of bets. Tickets will continue to flow in on the Gunners and it'll be interesting to see if the market holds firm to its position.
Lopsided Bets and Line Moves
Value Plays
- Wolves-Bournemouth Draw (+250)
- Huddersfield-Newcastle Draw (+200)
- Crystal Palace (+170) vs. Leicester City
- Brighton-Chelsea Over 2.5 (-115)
