The 2018-19 Premier League season has reached the midway point and the standings have drastically changed over the past two weeks.
2018-19 Season Trends
- Liverpool are still unbeaten in the league and are now 6 points ahead of second-place Tottenham in the standings. They lead Man City by 7 points and have conceded just 7 goals all year.
- It was a balanced Week 19 of results with 4 home wins, 3 road wins and 3 draws.
- This season's biggest moneyline upsets have been Crystal Palace (+1810 vs. Man City), Leicester City (+958 at Chelsea) and Leicester City (+860 vs. Man City).
While it was a rough first half of the season for value plays, there's still plenty of time to turn it around. For Week 20, I've analyzed the betting market for every match and provided five picks (22-44-1 season record, -10.67 units).
(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)
Saturday (6 Matches)
There is no early kickoff on Saturday morning so the slate starts with five matches at 10 a.m. ET.
The most impressive club over the last week, Leicester City, are -180 home favorites against Cardiff City as they look to stretch their win streak to three matches. The Foxes have reeled off successive victories against Chelsea and Manchester City, and have roughly a 64% chance to get another on Saturday.
Despite Cardiff City garnering public betting support, all the line movement has been toward Leicester City since opening. I'm surprised that casual bettors aren't hammering Leicester City after two impressive wins, but that's where the sharp money has been going.
Another club on a roll is Tottenham, and they're getting considerable support against Wolves as -230 home favorites. However, sportsbooks appear to be paying attention to other bets since most of the line movement has been toward the draw (+435 to +360). Wolves have found success against the top-six clubs, and I could see them pulling off another shocker at Spurs.
In other 10 a.m. ET action, the slight majority of tickets is on Fulham (51%), and odds have shifted in their direction from +130 to +105 against Huddersfield.
Everton (+130) are getting just over 50% of tickets at Brighton, and line movement has been very minimal so far. Both clubs earned positive results last week and will expect to win this match.
The only real lopsided betting action so far has been on Watford (66%) vs. Newcastle, and oddsmakers have taken notice. After opening around -105, the Hornets are up to -130 and could increase even more with the sharp support they're getting.
In the marquee matchup of the weekend at 12:30 p.m. ET (NBC Sports), Liverpool host Arsenal in a battle of first vs. fifth. This is the most bet game by far, and nearly 70% of tickets have come in on the Reds winning at home.
It's been a mix of public and smart money on Liverpool to push the line up to -170 to -215, while the Gunners can be found as high as +640. There's a gap between the two squads but I don't believe it's as much as the current odds, and Arsenal could capitalize on the counter-attack.
Sunday (4 Matches)
In a rare 7 a.m. ET Sunday kickoff, Crystal Place host Chelsea with a chance to earn points for their fourth consecutive game. Chelsea opened -145 but have dropped to -130 despite receiving more than 70% of wagers.
I missed the boat on Crystal Palace beating Man City but I'm on board this time, especially since they're at home.
We've seen intriguing betting patterns in both 9:15 a.m. ET kickoffs, too. Manchester City (-310) are getting very little support on the road at Southampton, but I'm not ready to jump off the Man City train yet. Bettors aren't believing in Burnley against West Ham, either, and I can't argue that one.
In the final match of 2018, Manchester United are -250 favorites against Bournemouth, and I don't see any reason to fade the home side since appointing Ole Gunnar Solskjær as manager.
Value Plays
- Fulham (+115) vs. Huddersfield
- Wolves-Tottenham Draw (+375)
- Arsenal (+625) at Liverpool
- Crystal Palace (+430) vs. Chelsea
- Man City -1.5 (-115) at Southampton
