Thursday was the deadline date for the January transfer window, but there weren't a lot of extraordinary moves. The most notable were Miguel Almiron (Atlanta United to Newcastle), Denis Suarez (Coruna to Arsenal), Michy Batshuayi (Chelsea loan to Crystal Palace), and Youri Tielemans (Monaco loan to Leicester City).
In midweek EPL action, Newcastle pulled off the second-largest upset of the season as +1400 underdogs against Manchester City. Liverpool now hold a six-point lead at the top of the league table despite drawing, 1-1, with Leicester City.
Through December 21st, EPL teams closing +750 or higher on the moneyline were 0-41 for -41 units.
Since then, teams closing +750 or higher have gone 4-16 for +35.33 units won. https://t.co/NcUoJXkk7F
— ArsenalDMC (@ArsenalDMC) January 30, 2019
Here's a look at the latest standings and betting trends before delving into Week 25 action.
2018-19 Season Trends
- Draws continue to struggle, but home teams got a big boost with Newcastle's upset over Manchester City.
- The most profitable clubs on the moneyline have been Leicester City (+15.12 units), Wolves (+9.20 u), Tottenham (+8.91 u) and Crystal Place (+8.84 u).
- Overs have hit at 53.1% for +8.16 units.
For Week 25, I've analyzed the betting market for every match and provided four value plays (30-55-1 season record, -11.99 units).
(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)
Saturday (6 Matches)
Tottenham vs. Newcastle (7:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
What a week for Newcastle, first beating Manchester City and then picking up Miguel Almiron in the transfer window. The Magpies are now five points clear of the relegation zone.
It was shaping up to be a dreadful week for Tottenham, losing in the EFL Cup and FA Cup, and then trailing 1-0 to Watford with 10 minutes remaining in EPL action. However, Spurs came back to win that game, 2-1, salvaging their Premier League title aspirations.
For Saturday's match, public bettors are siding with big underdogs Newcastle (+880), while just 39% of tickets have come in on Tottenham. I'm not sure if the Magpies could pull off another outright upset, but the draw (+350) is certainly enticing.
Chelsea vs. Huddersfield (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
Chelsea were just embarrassed against Bournemouth, 4-0, but fortunately they get to play the worst team in the EPL this weekend.
Huddersfield didn't enter the season with many expectations but they've still been a disappointment so far. The Terriers are -5000 favorites to be relegated and would need other clubs to keep losing even if they get red-hot. Perhaps the pressure is off Huddersfield at this point, but they still look anemic offensively.
Similar to Tottenham-Newcastle, public bettors are taking a chance on big underdogs Huddersfield, and I can't blame them after what happened during the week. Chelsea at the price of -525 just doesn't seem worth it, so I'll be laying off completely.
Burnley vs. Southampton (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
Burnley earned a surprising point at Manchester United on Wednesday night, but it could have been more if not for blowing a 2-0 lead with 5 minutes remaining.
Southampton also drew in midweek action (vs. Crystal Palace), and will be looking to take all three points against Burnley. The teams are currently tied in 16th place with 23 points apiece, just outside of the relegation zone.
Public bettors have quickly jumped on Burnley following their impressive result at United, dropping the odds from +175 to +155 behind 60% of moneyline tickets.
I'm going the other way in this one and siding with Southampton (+200, 8% of bets) as the contrarian side. Even though both clubs have been playing well, Burnley's run seems more like a facade, and it's never a good thing to see the public banking on them.
Crystal Palace vs. Fulham (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
Fulham finally won an EPL match on Tuesday, 4-2, despite going down 2-0 to Brighton before halftime. The victory was desperately needed for the home side, but they've still got plenty of work to do to stay in the Premier League next season.
Crystal Palace made a small splash in the transfer pool by signing striker Michy Batshuayi. He should be a good fit there and will have opportunities to play and score, especially when Wilfried Zaha is out of the lineup.
Since odds opened, the line has shifted toward Fulham but nothing significant. Public bettors are spread out on all three moneylines so there's no real public/contrarian side. I'm highly intrigued by the matchup but won't be partaking from a betting standpoint.
Everton vs. Wolverhampton (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
Both clubs picked up wins against inferior squads during the week but Saturday's match will be far more difficult. At the time of publication, 38% of bets are on Everton, 27% on Wolves and 35% on the draw.
I've been burned by both teams all season long but am sticking with a profitable Bet Labs system by taking the draw.
Brighton vs. Watford (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
The same draw system applies for Brighton-Watford, so I'm not overthinking this one and will be riding out the tie at +230 odds.
Cardiff City vs. Bournemouth (12:30 p.m. ET on NBC)
Cardiff fought hard in a 2-1 loss to Arsenal on Tuesday while Bournemouth thrashed Chelsea, 4-0.
Unsurprisingly, all the line movement has been toward Bournemouth so far, moving their odds from +155 to +130. It's safe to see that's all sharp money since the public will largely be ignoring this match this weekend.
Sunday (2 Matches)
Leicester City vs. Manchester United (9:05 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
Both clubs are coming off draws, but Leicester City will be far happier with theirs (at Liverpool) than Manchester United (vs. Burnley).
Around the market there's been a slew of tickets and money on Leicester City to win, dropping the odds down to +270. After opening at -120 odds, Manchester United can now be found at +120.
The Foxes have been tough to decipher this season, but I'd have to lean toward the over (2.5) against the Red Devils.
Manchester City vs. Arsenal (11:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
Manchester City only dropped a point to Liverpool in the title race despite a lackluster 2-1 loss at Newcastle, and their match against Arsenal will be one of the toughest of the year.
It's rare for the Gunners to be +800 underdogs, and they're winless in eight EPL matches at +400 or above since 2012. They're getting some good support from bettors all around the market, but I'm not sure they have what it takes to win at Man City.
Monday (1 Match)
West Ham vs. Liverpool (3 p.m. ET on NBC Sports)
In the final match of Week 25, Liverpool have a tricky road match at West Ham which is by no means an 'easy win'.
I was planning to take West Ham at anything above +500, and now that they're up to +660, I love the value on the Hammers to pull off the upset.
Value Plays
- Southampton (+200) at Burnley
- Everton-Wolves Draw (+220)
- Watford-Brighton Draw (+230)
- West Ham (+660) vs. Liverpool
