If you're a fan of favorites taking care of business, you're loving the 2018-19 Premier League season so far.
Big underdogs, defined as +500 or higher on the moneyline, have won zero of their 36 matches this year. That means if you wagered $100 on every sizable dog, you'd be down $3,600.
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Week 8 has only two potential upsets on the board: Newcastle (at Manchester United) and Cardiff (at Tottenham).
Here's a look at updated season trends, along with a betting preview and picks for Saturday and Sunday.
2018-19 Season Trends
There have been just 14 draws through the first seven weeks of the season, losing bettors nearly 20 units on the moneyline.
By analyzing the betting market and historical data, I've picked out two value plays to make for this weekend.
2018-19 Season Record: 7-18-1 (-6.57 units)
Huddersfield at Burnley (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Gold)
- Burnley Odds: +114
- Huddersfield Odds: +344
- Draw Odds: +204
- Over/Under: 2 (o-103)
Another Burnley match, another low over/under of two goals.
Even when a specific betting system hasn't been performing on the season, you don't necessarily want to stop playing the picks. The Premier League has been just as competitive as previous years, but draws have struggled mightily. I still think this is an anomaly and it will regress to the mean in the next few weeks.
Taking the draw is also following the sharp money and fading the public. Burnley are the most popular wager of the entire weekend, yet odds are moving away from them and toward the draw. Despite the line dropping to +204, there's still a bit of value on it.
The Bet: Draw (+204)
Manchester City at Liverpool (Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET, NBC Sports)
- Liverpool Odds: +154
- Man City Odds: +184
- Draw Odds: +261
- Over/Under: 3 (u-112)
Both Manchester City and Liverpool are coming off difficult road matches in Champions League midweek action. Man City were fortunate to grab a late winner to beat Hoffenheim 2-1, but Liverpool were shut out by Napoli, 1-0.
I really felt that public bettors would be hammering the over here, but the betting ticket splits have been close to 50/50. More than 80% of the money wagered has come in on over 3, though, and I completely agree with that.
The juice has shifted toward the over, but there's still plenty of value at -105. Manchester City have looked solid and have created a lot of quality scoring chances, and that should continue on Sunday. Expect another high-scoring affair between these offensive powerhouses.
The Bet: Over 3 (-105)
Biggest Line Moves
- It's not often that the biggest line movement comes on a draw, but that's the case for Saturday between Burnley and Huddersfield. The home side, Burnley, is attracting the most wagers of any EPL team this weekend, but the line is moving away from them.
- Wolves and Cardiff are both trendy picks to win on the road, something I tend to avoid.
Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here.
Most Lopsided Betting %
- Burnley, Arsenal and Leicester City are the most lopsided plays of the weekend.
- Burnley and Leicester City are surprising public darlings, while Arsenal usually garner significant action, especially as short favorites.
Value Plays
- Burnley-Huddersfield Draw (+204)
- Liverpool-Man City Over 3 (-105)
