PSG vs Barcelona Odds
| PSG Odds | -106 |
| Barcelona Odds | +275 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -167 / +130 |
PSG and Barcelona meet in Paris with both trying to gain an upper advantage in the first leg.
PSG had a sizable lead a top the Ligue 1 table, so their full focus is on winning their first Champions League title. There is a weird aura surrounding the club right now with the impending departure of their star player Kylian Mbappe, but with this side of the bracket being wide open, they have a great oppportunity to get to the final.
It's been a strange season for Barcelona, who are a ways back from Real Madrid in the La Liga table. Their manager Xavi has already announced that he will step down at the end of the season, so the Champions League is really their last chance to get a trophy and they are well positioned to do so being on the easy side of the bracket.
Here is how I'm betting PSG vs Barcelona Champions League match.
PSG
PSG have been on cruise control in Ligue 1, but their defensive performances really haven't been that good. Since January 14th, PSG have allowed 18.7 expected goals in 11 matches, but have only conceded 10 actual goals. The problem is that they've continued to to be really aggressive with their high press, but when it doesn't hit home, good build up teams are exposing them.
In possession, PSG are more than likely going to build out of the back and try to progress the ball up the field utilizing short passes to play through Barcelona's pressure. They aren't tested very often against good pressing teams in Ligue 1, but in the few instances in the Champions League, they have struggled.
In their previous Champions League tie against Real Sociedad, they basically couldn't get the ball out of their final third for the first 45 minutes. Most recently, they went on the road to take on Marseille and did win the match 2-0, but ended up turning the ball over 13 times in their own final third. Barcelona are a really good pressing team, but tends to struggle against teams that play the ball long because they lack physical presences in the midfield to win a lot of second balls. Since PSG aren't going to do that, Barcelona more than likely are going to cause problems for their build up.
Barcelona
Barcelona have really improved defensively recently, as they've only allowed one goal over their last six matches and what has made the biggest difference in 17-year-old Pau Cubarsí. In the 11 matches where he's played a majority of the match, Barcelona are only allowed 0.83 xG per 90 minutes, which is improvement from the 1.16 xG per 90 minutes they were allowing before he was inserted into the lineup.
The second leg against Napoli also showed how dangerous Barcelona can be when they attack teams directly. They have so much pace and outstanding ball carriers to put pressure on PSG's backline. Lamine Yamal has been dazzling as a 16-year-old in both La Liga and the Champions League. He has been incredibly good dribbling 1 v 1 against the opposing fullback to create a chance in the box as he has completed 13 crosses into the penalty area, which is the most on Barcelona this season.
Barcelona also got some positive injury news heading into this first leg as Frankie De Jong will make his return to the lineup after missing an extended period of time. De Jong is so important to Barcelona because he is the one dropping into the back line during build up, which allows İlkay Gündoğan to play his natural role as a box crashing midfielder.
PSG vs Barcelona
Prediction
Even though Barcelona have struggled quite a bit lately, this is a really good buy low spot for them. PSG haven't really been challenged lately in Ligue 1 and when they have, the underlying numbers have not been pretty, especially defensively.
Since PSG are going to build out of the back, it's going to allow Barcelona to unleash their high press, which has been successful this season considering they are second in La Liga in both PPDA and high turnovers. If PSG struggled against the likes of Newcastle, Real Sociedad and Marseille, what makes you think they are going to easily play through Barcelona?
With Pau Cubarsí in the lineup to improve the defense and with Frankie De Jong back to conduct the build up from the back line, this is a pretty good matchup for Barcelona.
Even if we are looking raw expected goal differential, Barcelona have a +1.14 xGD per 90 minutes in a way more difficult league, while PSG are only at +0.85 per 90 minutes.
I have this match projected really close to a pick'em, so I like the value on Barcelona +0.5 at -110.
