PSV and Arsenal enter their first-leg matchup in the Champions League Round of 16 under similar circumstances. Both teams are second in their respective leagues and have struggled with inconsistency in recent weeks.
They also share an urgent need to regain momentum and rediscover their best form — factors that add even more intrigue to this showdown . The matchup begins in the Netherlands and will be decided next week in England. Kickoff at Philips Stadium is set for Tuesday, March 4, at 3 p.m. ET.
Here is my PSV vs. Arsenal prediction and Champions League odds for today's match.
PSV vs. Arsenal Prediction, Pick, Champions League Odds
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -115 | 2.5 -105o / -120u | -105 |
| PSV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -125 | 2.5 -105o / -120u | +290 |
- PSV vs. Arsenal moneyline odds: PSV +290, Draw +250, Arsenal -105
- PSV vs. Arsenal over/under: 2.5 Goals (-105o / -120u)
- PSV vs. Arsenal pick: Under 2.5 goals and over 10.5 total corners
I am backing under 2.5 goals and over 10.5 total corners in the PSV vs. Arsenal match.
PSV Prediction
The Eindhoven-based club reached the Round of 16 after knocking out Juventus in the playoffs. That series was decided by a stoppage-time goal from defender Ryan Flamingo. However, that victory came at a cost.
PSV has struggled domestically, failing to win in its past four league matches (three draws and one loss). As a result, the team has surrendered the top spot to Ajax, which is now eight points ahead. PSV was also knocked out of the Dutch Cup after a semifinal defeat to Go Ahead Eagles.
Champions League winners in the 1987-1988 season, the club is eager to reestablish itself as a force in European football and has the talent to do so.
Goalkeeper Walter Benítez, recently called up again to the Argentina national team, and left-back Tyrell Malacia, on loan from Manchester United, are key players, but PSV will be without U.S. men's national team striker Ricardo Pepi, who is likely out for the rest of the season due to a knee injury.
Arsenal Prediction
Arsenal's Premier League title hopes have all but faded in recent weeks. A home loss to West Ham and an away draw against Nottingham Forest have left the Gunners 13 points behind league leaders Liverpool. They do have a game in hand, which could narrow the gap to 10 points, but the deficit remains significant.
With early exits from both the FA Cup and the EFL Cup, the Gunners have now turned their full attention to the Champions League — a trophy that has eluded them throughout their history. The team finished third in the league stage and earned automatic qualification into the knockout rounds.
Defensive solidity has been one of Arsenal’s biggest strengths this season. Goalkeeper David Raya continues to impress, while the center-back duo of Gabriel Magalhaes and William Saliba is among the most formidable in Europe. The midfield, led by Martin Odegaard and Declan Rice, is also highly skilled.
However, injuries have taken a toll on the attack. Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus are all sidelined, forcing manager Mikel Arteta to once again improvise. Leandro Trossard or Mikel Merino is expected to lead the line.
PSV vs. Arsenal Pick
These teams have faced each other four times in the past three years, with PSV winning 2-0 and drawing 1-1 at home.
One advantage for the Gunners is that they come into this match well-rested, having not played over the weekend. While they have the superior squad on paper, their injury crisis significantly levels the playing field.
PSV will look to capitalize on home support to gain an advantage before heading to London, but will have to contend with a resilient rival defense. Meanwhile, Arsenal’s attacking struggles are evident as they have failed to score in their past two matches.
Given those factors, I expect a tight, low-scoring encounter that will leave the tie wide open for the second leg. Betting on the moneyline doesn’t seem like the best approach, but with both teams relying heavily on width in their tactical setups, corner kicks should be plentiful — making them a strong addition to a same-game parlay.
PSV vs. Arsenal Pick: Under 2.5 Goals and Over 10.5 Corners (+285, DraftKings)
