RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund Odds
RB Leipzig Odds | +120 |
Borussia Dortmund Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-186 / +142) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-220 / +170) |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund both had massively disappointing performances returning from the international break. Leipzig lost 3-0 at home to Mainz to slip out of the top four in Germany, while Dortmund lost 4-2 in Der Klassiker to Bayern Munich to fall out of the top spot in the Bundesliga table.
Dortmund beat Leipzig last month at home in their league meeting, but the result didn't quite match with the underlying numbers of how that match really played out. Dortmund found some success over the top with some direct attacks in the first half and did win a penalty against Leipzig, but the visitors totally dominated the second half and were unfortunate to not find the late equalizer after Dortmund cleared Timo Werner's strike off the line.
Leipzig had more penalty box shots, final third entries and expected goals (xG). The non-penalty xG was 2.2 for Leipzig to just 0.5 for Dortmund. The number suggests that Dortmund are the better side overall, though Leipzig have the much more reliable defense.
RB Leipzig Still Efficient Defensively
It hasn't seemed that way in the last few matches, but Leipzig's defense is still quite good. Marco Rose's side conceded 2.9 xG and three goals to Mainz. They've lost 4-of-5 in all competitions, allowed seven to Manchester City in the Champions League and were even fortunate to keep a clean sheet against Borussia Monchengladbach in their lone win in March.
This real blip in form presents a great buy low spot on them at home against an overvalued Dortmund. Leipzig's defense allows the fewest shots in the league and the second fewest non-penalty xG per match. From a field tilt perspective, only Bayern have better numbers. Rose's side is top-two in box entries and expected threat.
If there's a hole in Rose's defense, it's on set pieces. They rank dead last in xG per set piece allowed, but they make up for it by not conceding many of them. Leipzig may struggle at that end in stopping clear chances from dead balls, but no attack has produced more xG from dead ball plays or scored more goals than Leipzig.
Combine an elite set piece offense with the league's best open play defense and you have a very underrated team in Germany. The market is overreacting to their recent poor form because this would have been Leipzig +100 at worst six weeks ago.
Borussia Dortmund Facing Tough Emotional Test
Borussia Dortmund's unbeaten league run post-World Cup came to an end in Munich on Saturday. You have to wonder what the response will be from Edin Terzic's men ahead of a road trip to Leipzig.
The Dortmund defense hasn't played up well this season. In the Champions League, Dortmund conceded 4.1 xGA in two matches to Chelsea. In the Bundesliga, Bayern posted 2.4 xGA and were aided by some Gregor Kobel goalkeeping errors.
When Dortmund went away to struggling Hoffenheim and Schalke, the defense failed to hold the opponent to less than 1.3 xG. The defense has now slid all the way to eighth in non-penalty xG allowed in the Bundesliga. They're 11th in shots allowed and just sixth in box entries allowed.
Bayern were able to find a ton of space in the midfield once they broke through the first line of Dortmund's press. There are holes that went unexploited by opponents in Germany post-World Cup, but this looks more like the same old Dortmund than anything truly improved or leveled up.
If you're considering the four units in this game, Dortmund's defense is clearly the biggest weakness. Kobel has been good this season, but it's unclear how he'll respond from a confidence or form perceptive following Saturday. Will Dortmund be more focused on the league? It's certainly a possibility.
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund Pick
FiveThirtyEight's SPI ratings still project Dortmund as the marginally better team overall, but the Blacks and Yellows' recent red hot form is overvaluing them. Dortmund still have the same defensive flaws from the past, whereas Leipzig are the much more balanced side overall. Rose's side has the better non-penalty xG difference this season and last season.
Dortmund won the last meeting at home because of a hot start and a couple of miscues defensively (and in goal) from Leipzig, but Leipzig showed in the second half that they're the more stable side in possession.
If Dortmund come to this match away from home looking to defend without the ball, the cracks in the defense will get exposed. My projections have Leipzig right at even money as the marginally better team at home. I'd bet Leipzig +110 or better.
