Friday Bundesliga Betting: Hoffenheim vs. RB Leipzig Odds, Preview, Picks and Predictions (June 12)

Hoffenheim vs. RB Leipzig Betting Odds and Picks

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Last week’s draw against Paderborn was a microcosm of RB Leipzig’s recent form, and the reason why they sit third in the Bundesliga, now 11 points behind league leaders Bayern Munich.

Leipzig dominated the opening 45 minutes, creating three clear goal-scoring opportunities, converting one. Then, RBL defender Dayot Upamecano picked up a second yellow card before halftime, and Paderborn grabbed a late equalizer in stoppage time to hand RBL a league-high 11th draw.

Hoffenheim also played the majority of its last match down a man, after an early red card in the ninth minute. Despite scoring two goals down a man, Hoffenheim were pegged back in a 2-2 draw to Dusseldorf.

Perhaps the most intriguing angle in this matchup is the managerial shuffle. Hoffenheim just sacked its manager Alfred Schreuder after the draw at the weekend. He was the manager for less than a year, as Schreuder was previously an assistant under Julian Nagelsmann at Hoffenheim, until Nagelsmann left Hoffenheim at the end of last season to take the job at Leipzig.

Getting into the matchup, both sides have had serious defensive issues since the Bundesliga has returned. Leipzig boast the league’s second best defense in terms of goals allowed over the whole season, but have slipped of late.

Die Roten Bullen have conceded five goals in its last three matches, and 4.1 xG. Despite the defensive issues, Leipzig have had no issues creating chances, scoring seven goals on 6.3 xG in its last three as well.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Both teams love to play high-press, high-flying, attacking football, and I’m not expecting Hoffenheim’s approach to change much in the first match under its new manager. Hoffenheim have conceded 5.8 xG in its last three matches and allowed three to Leipzig in the team’s last meeting.

The last time these two teams met, Leipzig won 3-1, grabbing two early first half goals and putting the game away at 3-0 before eventually conceding a late goal to Hoffenheim. The xG report suggests given the shot totals that the scoring could have been even higher, as there were a combined 5.1 xG.

Given that Nagelsmann coached them for the last four seasons, there should be some familiarity with how to break down Hoffenheim’s leaky defense, which is likely what cost Schreuder his job.

While Hoffenheim’s defense has done a solid job of keeping opponents out of its six-yard box, conceding just six goals from in close, its defense has allowed 39 from inside the penalty area, which is where RBL’s offense excels, posting a +27.60 xG difference over its opponents on shots originating from between the edge of the penalty area and inside the six yard box.

I’ve written before about how good Leipzig are when ahead in games, as they have a tendency to pile on teams once up one or two goals. An early goal could break this game wide open as Hoffenheim are built to possess the ball and continuously attack.

RBL will be able to break open tons of space on the counter if leading in the second half. I’ll bank on Leipzig to keep 11 men on the field and score at least three goals, thus making the over 3.5 my best bet for this matchup.