RB Leipzig vs. FC Koln Odds
| RB Leipzig odds | -195 (BET NOW) |
| Koln odds | +450 (BET NOW) |
| Draw odds | +340 (BET NOW) |
| Over/Under | 3 (-148/+118) (BET NOW) |
| Time | Monday, 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
RB Leipzig and FC Köln both stumbled in their midweek matches, with Leipzig dropping points in a 2-2 draw to Hertha Berlin as Köln played a man down for 64 minutes in a 3-1 defeat to Hoffenheim.
As the season winds down with just six matches remaining, the two sides meet on Monday afternoon with plenty at stake for Leipzig. The same can’t be said for Köln.
Leipzig enters the match in fifth place, one point behind Leverkusen and Borussia Monchengladbach in the fight for the top four and a Champions League place.
Meanwhile, Köln is pretty safely in the mid-table, sitting 11th on 34 points, seven points clear of any relegation danger. Leipzig’s biggest issue has been its 10 draws this season, as Die Roten Bullen have the most draws of any team in the top half of the table. Despite the fewest losses in the league, RBL’s four draws in its last five matches have enabled Bayern Munich to extend its lead from one point to 12.
When you look at the season as a whole, Leipzig’s underlying numbers are impressive. First in expected goals against, second in xGF, and second in xG difference per 90. Their problem is that these results haven’t come consistently, leaving for some lackluster performances and draws, and dominant wins.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Good Leipzig thrashed Mainz 5-0 at the weekend. Mediocre Leipzig struggled and was fortunate to even get a point against Hertha in the midweek.
When these two teams last met in November, Leipzig cruised to a 4-1 win, winning 2.4-0.4 on xG as well. While draws against other top half teams will cost them a shot at the title, RBL have won 12 matches, lost two and drawn none against the bottom half this season.
On the other side, no team’s form has taken more of a downturn since the layoff than Köln. The Billy Goats won eight of 11 before the two-month layoff, and have had two draws and a loss since the return.
First, they squandered a two-goal lead against Mainz, then needed two late goals to draw Dusseldorf. Köln then had an early red card and trailed 3-0 to Hoffenheim inside an hour. For a team struggling defensively at the moment, a frustrated Leipzig desperate for points could be a bad combination for Köln.
If good Leipzig shows up and rolls against a mediocre Köln side, they should have no problem scoring at least three goals. For that reason, I’m going to bet on a higher variance team like Leipzig to cover the spread.
Available on DraftKings, I’ll lay Leipzig -1.5 goals because I think it’s more likely they either dominate Köln or struggle to win at all, thus leaving value on betting alternate spreads.
When Leipzig have held a one goal lead this season during matches, they’ve scored the next goal 16 times, and conceded the next goal just twice. When up two or more goals, that spread is 22 goals for to just seven against. RBL has also scored 19 goals in the last 15 minutes of games this season. Their ability to pile on teams leaves value on -1.5 here.
The bet: RB Leipzig -1.5 (+140)
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