RB Leipzig vs Man City Odds
| RB Leipzig Odds | +350 |
| Man City Odds | -134 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -154 / +120 |
Four days after RB Leipzig played Bayern Munich to a 2-2 draw at home, Marco Rose's side will face the best club team in the world on Wednesday in the Champions League. These two sides met in the round of 16 of last season's knockout stage, as Leipzig held City to a 1-1 draw in Germany before losing 7-0 in Manchester.
Leipzig have been in stellar form to begin the new season in Germany. They lost at Leverkusen on the opening day and tied Bayern in the league, but Leipzig won the rest of their six matches comfortably and also beat Bayern in the German Super Cup.
Rose's side had major issues playing out against City's press in the second meeting in Manchester, and high turnovers led to big chance after big chance for the Cityzens at home. The matchup in Leipzig was considerably lower event, and Leipzig's ability to press centrally and force all of Bayern's build-up to come from wide areas on Saturday could be a key tactic to get a point at home in this match.
Let's dive into RB Leipzig vs Man City ahead of their Champions League fixture.
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig actually have a negative expected goal difference in the Bundesliga through the first six matches. They've played a relatively difficult schedule with four games against Leverkusen, Bayern and Union Berlin — three of the top six in the table last season. It's true that Leipzig can't possibly run as hot as they've run from a finishing perspective going forward as Leipzig have 16 goals scored from 7 xG.
The market has downgraded them off their early season performances and I don't agree at all. They were dead even with Leverkusen on the road but Lois Openda's miss from point blank range meant they lost 3-2 instead of tying. Leipzig beat Bayern in the Super Cup comfortably and held them to 10 shots despite a very positive game state once leading 2-0 at the half.
The Bavarians chased the game for the overwhelming majority of it and still couldn't get more than 1.5 non-penalty xG. Leipzig completely took away Bayern's ability to build-up through the middle, which is how City like to pass through the ball from back to front while not committing many numbers forward.
xG difference is one of the best metrics to evaluate teams, but it can be misleading in small samples. Because Leipzig have run so well early in games, they've played from ahead a lot. The talent in this side is as good as last year when Rose had them playing like a top eight team in Europe.
Man City
Manchester City lost their first match of the season on Saturday at Wolves as they conceded two transition goals and struggled in attack in a 2-1 defeat. The Cityzens have a critical league clash on Sunday on the road at Arsenal, but first will make a mid-week trip to Leipzig. It'll be interesting to see how Pep Guardiola manages the minutes this week.
In the layout of the entire season, that away match at Arsenal is more important than this one on Wednesday. City will be favored to win their CL group regardless of what happens in this match, and the other two teams in the group are vastly inferior to City and Leipzig. A draw would be a favorable result for the Cityzens given the situational spot.
The Cityzens have used Phil Foden and Julian Alvarez behind Erling Haaland this year, and the absence of Bernardo Silva due to injury likely means more attacks through the center of the pitch. Bayern struggled to get into zone 14 just outside the penalty area consistently against Leipzig, but Leipzig will face a difficult test without defensive midfielder Kevin Kampl, who left the match vs. Bayern with injury.
With how conservative Pep Guardiola is in possession, City only managed 12 shots in the first leg at Leipzig last year. They'll try to press Leipzig into mistakes and that's how Riyad Mahrez scored last year, but Leipzig's settled defense had few issues slowing down City.
RB Leipzig vs Man City
Betting Pick & Prediction
The market has downgraded Leipzig relative to the start of the season and I don't really agree with that. It's a rare time where small sample xG isn't telling the whole story of a team's true quality. A draw is a good result for both clubs here and City's price has drifted from as high as -160 on the three-way moneyline down to the current -134 price.
I'd bet Leipzig to get a result at +110 or better, even without Kampl and Dani Olmo due to injury.
