Real Betis vs Celta Vigo Odds
| Real Betis Odds | +105 |
| Celta Vigo Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100 / -125 |
Soccer returns in Spain this weekend with a full slate of action which kicks off on Friday night with Real Betis and Celta Vigo at the Estadio Benito Villamarín.
The home side comes into this game in eighth and seven points back from a European place for next season.
Meanwhile, the visitors are fighting to avoid relegation, sitting in 17th and just three points above the drop zone.
When it comes to these Friday league fixtures, I always like to back the home teams, and it will apply again in this one.
Read on for my La Liga match preview ahead of Real Betis vs Celta Vigo.
Real Betis
Things have not gone to plan for Betis since mid-February. The club was knocked out of the Europa Conference League by Dinamo Zagreb.
Manuel Pellegrini’s team followed that up by losing four of its next five in La Liga, including four straight coming into this one.
However, three of those were away from home. This was also a stretch that included games against Girona, Athletic Club, Atlético Madrid and Villarreal.
The other issue was the fact that Isco was only able to start one of those fixtures. He should be healthy here to go along with Nabil Fekir getting up to match fitness.
This should be a good spot to get the season back on track.
Celta Vigo
To open the campaign, Celta Vigo only recorded one win over its first 16 league games. This was the hole that Rafael Benítez and his team had to fight out of.
With Granada and Almería likely already down, the relegation battle is a scrap to avoid 18th. Vigo have a three-point gap between Cádiz in that place now and Sevilla in 14th.
DraftKings has Celta Vigo listed as the club with the second-lowest odds to get relegated at +500. It also doesn’t help that five of the remaining eight league games are against top 10 sides.
The pressure is on for Jørgen Strand Larsen and Iago Aspas to score the goals to keep Vigo up. The duo has played a direct role in 23-of-31 (74%) of the team’s La Liga goals.
Real Betis vs Celta Vigo
Prediction
If you compare the two teams, there isn’t a huge difference in expected goals difference, according to fbref.com. The thing that stands out is how each one plays at home and on the road.
It is this gap that leads me to my best bet of backing Real Betis on the moneyline at +105 odds at bet365. I would play this down to -120 or add this to a Single Game Parlay with the under five goals.
On the road this season, Vigo rank 16th in La Liga in xG difference. This is the same team that has lost five-of-eight matches away from home against teams in the top half of the league table.
Meanwhile, Betis only trail the top five in the best expected-goals difference at home on the campaign. Against the lesser sides, Pellegrini’s team has won four-of-seven and has not been beaten at home by a bottom 10 team.
The other trend I come back to is backing the home team in Spain on Friday nights. For the season, the home side has won 19-of-31 (61%) Friday league fixtures.
I know the recent form has not been pretty, but with the return of Isco to play at home, I like Betis to get back on track with a win.
