Real Madrid and AC Milan face off Tuesday in the Champions League. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid.
Los Blancos are looking to get back on track after the embarrassing defeat in El Clásico to Barcelona.
Meanwhile, Milan picked up their first win of the tournament against Club Brugge on Matchday 3 after losses to Liverpool and Bayern Leverkusen.
Here is my Real Madrid vs. AC Milan prediction.
Real Madrid vs. AC Milan Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Milan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -143 | 2.5 -200o / 162u | +550 |
| Real Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 2.5 -200o / 162u | -225 |
- Real Madrid vs. AC Milan moneyline odds: Real Madrid -138, AC Milan +333
- Real Madrid vs. AC Milan over/under: 2.5 goals (over +163, under -130)
- Real Madrid vs. AC Milan pick: Real Madrid moneyline and Both Teams to Score
I am backing Real Madrid moneyline and BTTS in Real Madrid vs. AC Milan.
Real Madrid vs. AC Milan Champions League Preview
For as puzzling as some of the results have been this season, I believe these are the types of games in this tournament where you get Madrid’s best, especially at home. I also just don’t like what we’ve seen from Milan against tougher opposition.
So, my best bet is a same-game parlay, pairing a home win with both teams to score at +170 odds at Bet365. I would play this down to +150.
Yes, I understand that Madrid was just blasted at home 4-0 by Barcelona. However, this was still a game where Carlo Ancelotti’s team missed four big chances.
In this tournament, the home results have not been an issue. Madrid has wins over Stuttgart and Dortmund that had a combined 11 goals, with this same play cashing in both.
While I do like Los Blancos at home, I do have big questions about the defense. They do not have a clean sheet in this tournament, allowing 1.53 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
This has also been an issue in La Liga action. In 15 games in all competitions, Madrid has only posted a shutout in five matches, with four of those coming in the opening six games.
The leaky defense should give Milan’s strong attackers opportunities. Between Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leão, there is more than enough quality to score away from home.
Meanwhile, the Italian side has also had its struggles on the road in the UCL. The tournament started by getting dominated 3-1 at Liverpool before also conceding 1.8 xG in the loss at Leverkusen.
This could play out like one of those classics in recent seasons at Madrid, where the visitors score first. Then, the home team roars back dramatically with multiple goals.
You could keep it simple with just backing goals, but I love tagging on the home victory for a juicy price.
Real Madrid vs. AC Milan Prediction
Pick: Same-Game Parlay: Real Madrid moneyline & BTTS (+170)
