Arsenal and Real Madrid will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EDT at Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, Spain.
Real Madrid is favored at a -140 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (+135o / -170u) goals.
Let's get into my Arsenal vs. Real Madrid prediction.
Arsenal vs. Real Madrid Odds, Prediction
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -155 | 3.5 135o / -170u | +350 |
| Real Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 +110 | 3.5 135o / -170u | -140 |
Arsenal vs. Real Madrid spread: Real Madrid -1 (+110), Arsenal +1 (-155)
Arsenal vs. Real Madrid over/under: 3.5 (+135o / -170u)
Arsenal vs. Real Madrid moneyline: Arsenal +350, Real Madrid -140
Arsenal vs. Real Madrid best bet: Real Madrid ML and Both Teams To Score
Arsenal Prediction
This is it for Arsenal. If they want to finally put to rest any doubts regarding their courage in the most important moments, this is their opportunity to do so at the most intimidating venue of all: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium.
The Gunners still dream of winning their first Champions League, and they have a good case after beating Real Madrid 3-0 in London last week. However, they need to finish the job in this second leg. Manager Mikel Arteta knows better than to sit back and run out the clock. The nights are long at the Bernabéu and for a good reason: Real Madrid never quits.
Arsenal should plan accordingly. They’d better stick to their guns: ball control and possession-driven attacks. If Real Madrid wants to go all out, the London side has speed upfront to counter-attack and increase the lead, if given the chance.
There are signs of something special happening. Arsenal had not scored a direct free-kick in all competitions since September 2021, and Declan Rice did it twice in the span of 12 minutes against Real Madrid last week. Not only that, but Rice had never scored on a direct FK in his career until now, and he became just the fifth player to do it in the Champions League and the first to score them in a knockout tie.
The stage is set. Arsenal just need to prove their worth.
Real Madrid Prediction
The soccer world knows of Real Madrid's incredible resilience and even luck in the most crucial games. They always seem to survive and win under the most dire circumstances. But a three-goal disadvantage is one tough mountain to climb. According to statistics guru MisterChip, Real Madrid has not advanced after a defeat by such a margin in knockout rounds in all European competitions since 1986.
Their first task is not to rely on past achievements or their aura in this competition, but to work on their offense. Last week, they recorded their lowest xG (0.50) in this Champions League, the worst for them since the 22-23 season per Fbref.
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium is still a stronghold, and visitors fear the atmosphere there. Real Madrid has won five out of six games there in this Champions League, including both previous knockout rounds against Manchester City and Atletico de Madrid, and they are no strangers to late comeback victories.
With an attack featuring Kylian Mbappé, Vinicius, and Rodrygo, anything can happen, especially if they manage to score early. That is why, per OddsPortal, they have the highest projected chance of victory (47.5%) of the four teams playing the second leg at home.
They will only miss the suspended Eduardo Camavinga, who got a red card in the previous match.
Arsenal vs. Real Madrid Pick
Real Madrid has lost just four of their 22 Champions League home matches against English opposition, and this might end up being another victory for the Spanish side. However, with such an advantage, Arsenal does not need to win to advance.
The real question is: How many goals can Madrid score without conceding? They haven't been stopping rivals lately. According to SofaScore, Both Teams To Score-Yes has hit in the past 10 UCL matches at Santiago Bernabéu.
Arsenal have averaged 2.5 goals in this edition and scored twice or more in seven games straight. This is not the 2006 defensive-minded machine that eliminated Real Madrid in the Round of 16, but with a single goal on Wednesday against a desperate home side, the Gunners might punch their ticket to the semis.
Arsenal vs. Real Madrid Pick: Real Madrid ML and Both Teams To Score (+186, DraftKings)
