Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid face off in the first match of the Champions League Round of 16. The game will start at 3 p.m. (ET) and can be watched on Paramount+.
Here is my Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid prediction and Champions League odds for today's match.
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction, Pick, Champions League Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -125 | 2.5 -109o /-115u | -115 |
| Atletico Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -110 | 2.5 -109o /-115u | +320 |
- Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid moneyline odds: Real Madrid -115, Draw +255, Atletico Madrid +320
- Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid over/under: 2.5 Goals (Over -109 , Under -115)
- Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid pick: Real Madrid Moneyline and Both Teams to Score
I am backing the Real Madrid moneyline and both teams to score in the Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid match.
Real Madrid Prediction
Real Madrid arrives at this match with some doubts and without one of its key players, Jude Bellingham, who is suspended.
Carlo Ancelotti’s players, after allowing a comeback against Betis on Saturday and losing 2-1, have once again raised concerns at a crucial moment in the season.
As he has throughout the season, the Italian coach emphasized the reasons for the defeat in his press conference: "Attitude and commitment."
In another warning, as has happened in previous matches, Ancelotti stressed the importance of defensive work from all his players ahead of the derby.
"This match must serve as a wake-up call," he warned. "It's a lesson."
Real Madrid had dispelled doubts in recent matches, especially in their Round of 16 qualifier against Manchester City (6-3 on aggregate) and their 1-0 win in the first leg of the Copa del Rey semifinals against Real Sociedad.
However, the team has now taken a step back, coinciding with the absences of Bellingham and Fede Valverde, who both missed the game against Betis.
The English midfielder will also miss the match against Atletico due to suspension after accumulating three yellow cards in his last European competition appearance. Meanwhile, the Uruguayan remains doubtful.
Real Madrid had been on a positive run, with five wins and two draws, including one against Atletico at the Bernabeu in La Liga. However, the team has already suffered eight defeats in 44 matches this season, compared to just two in 55 games last season.
Atletico Madrid Prediction
Atletico Madrid is in a dominant position to potentially surpass Real Madrid in European competition.
Real Madrid, which holds the record with 15 European titles, has been a thorn in Atletico's side in the Champions League over the years. The Merengues have beaten their rival in two finals and knocked them out in the other two times they met in the knockout stage.
But this Atletico arrives at the first-leg match on Tuesday at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in one of their best moments under coach Diego Simeone, with the confidence that they can face their eternal rival on equal terms.
Atletico Madrid comes into the game against Madrid in good form. The team is ahead of their rival in the Spanish league standings and just one point behind Barcelona, which is in first place.
Atletico hasn't lost any of their matches this season against Madrid or Barcelona. In La Liga, they beat the Catalan club 2-1 in Barcelona and drew 1-1 in both games against Madrid.
Simeone's team has not lost to their city rival in four consecutive matches, since eliminating them in the Round of 16 of the Copa del Rey last season.
Atletico Madrid finished fifth in the first phase of the Champions League, while Madrid was 11th and had to play additional playoff matches against Manchester City.
The last time Atletico faced Madrid in the Champions League, they were eliminated in the 2017 semifinals. They also lost the final in both 2014 and 2016, and in the quarterfinals in 2015.
In total, Atletico has only won three of their 10 encounters against Madrid in UEFA competitions, with five losses and two draws.
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Pick
Real Madrid, despite Bellingham's absence, has the advantage of experience in key matches, especially at the Santiago Bernabeu.
Although Atletico comes in good form, their reliance on a very structured defense may not be enough against the offensive quality of the Merengues, who always find a way to score.
Atletico Madrid is a tough team to beat, though small details can decide the outcome, and Real Madrid has shown the ability to capitalize on these moments.
Real Madrid should be cautious of Antoine Griezmann and Julian Alvarez, who are in great form. I believe both teams will score, but at the end of the day, the victory will go to the Merengues by a narrow margin.
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Pick: Real Madrid Moneyline, Both Teams to Score
